Live decision
Low conviction defaults to no trade.
PairSOLUSDT
Qwen actionNo Trade
GovernorNo edge yet
Conviction0%
AI decision room
Updated Jul 24, 17:55Insights
227/406 refused trades later crossed their stop band. Catalyst records restraint as a measurable outcome.
Qwen actionNo Trademodel proposal
GovernorNo edge yetdeterministic gate
Council2/1/3trade / stand-down / watch
Decision CSVdownloadOpen proofOpen latest receipt ->
Governor resolution
No side cleared a decisive majority; the governor resolved it as No edge yet: Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.
CouncilWatch
Live scouts4/6
Required3
Failed checksconviction_floor
Council dissent
from receipt 245c086b...e62310
2 trade / 1 stand-down / 3 watch
No side cleared a decisive majority; the governor resolved it as No edge yet: Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.
Chart Scout
Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicalsAgent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 30.87; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.35%
Flow Scout
Checks market structure and volatilityrealized volatility proxy 1.55%, regime downtrend
Macro Scout
Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off contextAgent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. This is context only…
Narrative Scout
Checks whether news confirms the setupAgent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline.
Positioning Scout
Reads funding and derivatives positioningFunding -0.0005%, open interest 4.96M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced
Qwen Strategist
Synthesizes the thesis in plain languageTechnicals show bearish structure (MACD death cross, negative 24h/72h momentum, price below Bollinger band) aligned with a confirmed downtrend, but d…
Refusal outcomes
Download per-decision CSV ->What happened after no-trade
| Thesis | Reason | Would-have outcome | Stop-band |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOLUSDT Short | conviction_floor | +0.20% | Window Close |
| ETHUSDT Long | conviction_floor | -0.08% | crossed stop |
| BTCUSDT Long | conviction_floor | -0.08% | crossed stop |
| SOLUSDT Short | conviction_floor | +0.22% | Window Close |
| SOLUSDT Short | conviction_floor | +0.15% | Window Close |
| ETHUSDT Short | conviction_floor | +0.12% | Window Close |
| BTCUSDT Short | conviction_floor | +0.09% | Window Close |
| SOLUSDT Short | conviction_floor | +0.13% | Window Close |
Qwen thesis
Technicals show bearish structure (MACD death cross, negative 24h/72h momentum, price below Bollinger band) aligned with a confirmed downtrend, but derivatives sentiment is neutral and the convergence metric is unmet (2 of 3 required bearish signals). Catalyst adheres to the NO_TRADE default until technicals and positioning fully align.
Modelqwen3.6-plus
ActionNo Trade
Conviction0%