{ "version": "catalyst.forward-ledger.v1", "updatedAt": "2026-07-24T17:56:44.026Z", "simulationOnly": true, "window": { "rule": "Rows are resolved only when the committed receipt contains a completed shadow-ledger evaluation window. Unresolved or incomplete rows remain PENDING.", "source": "receipts/cycles/*.json", "excludes": "receipts/demo, receipts/replay, seeded fixtures, and Playbook-only backtests", "caveat": "This is a simulation-derived shadow-audit ledger from committed receipts, not realized live PnL. Approved and refused decisions are scored identically: signals on the in-sample bars, outcome on the held-out out-of-sample tail with the 2% stop applied, so the discipline comparison is apples to apples. New cron receipts keep extending the record." }, "gitNotary": { "type": "git", "commit": "291a4867770717230a6e6a39fbec15257b8d56ed", "shortCommit": "291a486", "committedAt": "2026-06-24T21:51:02Z", "subject": "Record Catalyst autonomous cycle", "note": "Receipt artifacts are committed to GitHub by the scheduled workflow, creating a public timestamped trail of the proof bundle." }, "totals": { "cycles": 668, "resolved": 667, "pending": 1, "approved": 70, "approvedPending": 0, "vetoed": 406, "standDown": 191, "vetoedStopCrossings": 227, "approvedWinRatePct": 62.8571 }, "metrics": { "approvedCumulativePnlPct": 34.2317, "forcedCounterfactualPnlPct": 7.7078, "forcedRawCounterfactualPnlPct": 34.8333, "disciplineAlphaPct": 26.5239, "vetoedStopCrossRatePct": 55.9113, "worstMaxAdversePct": 10.924 }, "calibration": { "trade": { "n": 70, "brierScore": 0.2463, "bins": [ { "conviction": 0.65, "predictedWinPct": 65, "observedWinPct": 66.6667, "n": 21 }, { "conviction": 0.68, "predictedWinPct": 68, "observedWinPct": 40, "n": 5 }, { "conviction": 0.7, "predictedWinPct": 70, "observedWinPct": 66.6667, "n": 6 }, { "conviction": 0.72, "predictedWinPct": 72, "observedWinPct": 86.6667, "n": 15 }, { "conviction": 0.75, "predictedWinPct": 75, "observedWinPct": 47.0588, "n": 17 }, { "conviction": 0.76, "predictedWinPct": 76, "observedWinPct": 0, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": 0.78, "predictedWinPct": 78, "observedWinPct": 50, "n": 2 }, { "conviction": 0.8, "predictedWinPct": 80, "observedWinPct": 100, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": 0.85, "predictedWinPct": 85, "observedWinPct": 50, "n": 2 } ] }, "decision": { "n": 476, "brierScore": 0.3958, "bins": [ { "conviction": 0, "predictedWinPct": 0, "observedWinPct": 43.4316, "n": 373 }, { "conviction": 0.1, "predictedWinPct": 10, "observedWinPct": 50, "n": 2 }, { "conviction": 0.15, "predictedWinPct": 15, "observedWinPct": 33.3333, "n": 3 }, { "conviction": 0.25, "predictedWinPct": 25, "observedWinPct": 0, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": 0.3, "predictedWinPct": 30, "observedWinPct": 100, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": 0.4, "predictedWinPct": 40, "observedWinPct": 0, "n": 2 }, { "conviction": 0.45, "predictedWinPct": 45, "observedWinPct": 50, "n": 2 }, { "conviction": 0.52, "predictedWinPct": 52, "observedWinPct": 100, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": 0.55, "predictedWinPct": 55, "observedWinPct": 0, "n": 4 }, { "conviction": 0.6, "predictedWinPct": 60, "observedWinPct": 38.4615, "n": 13 }, { "conviction": 0.62, "predictedWinPct": 62, "observedWinPct": 66.6667, "n": 3 }, { "conviction": 0.65, "predictedWinPct": 65, "observedWinPct": 63.6364, "n": 22 }, { "conviction": 0.68, "predictedWinPct": 68, "observedWinPct": 40, "n": 5 }, { "conviction": 0.7, "predictedWinPct": 70, "observedWinPct": 66.6667, "n": 6 }, { "conviction": 0.72, "predictedWinPct": 72, "observedWinPct": 86.6667, "n": 15 }, { "conviction": 0.75, "predictedWinPct": 75, "observedWinPct": 47.0588, "n": 17 }, { "conviction": 0.76, "predictedWinPct": 76, "observedWinPct": 0, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": 0.78, "predictedWinPct": 78, "observedWinPct": 50, "n": 2 }, { "conviction": 0.8, "predictedWinPct": 80, "observedWinPct": 100, "n": 1 }, { "conviction": 0.85, "predictedWinPct": 85, "observedWinPct": 50, "n": 2 } ] } }, "headline": "70 approved trades resolved at 62.8571% win; discipline added +26.5239% over 406 refused setups across 668 cycles. Simulation shadow, every decision reconcilable.", "rows": [ { "cycleId": "20260724-175644026Z-27925e30fe", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260724-175644026Z-27925e30fe.json", "ts": "2026-07-24T17:56:44.026Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-24T17:54:19.766Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 39.88; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.33%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9207, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.73%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0058%, open interest 774.67K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence requirement of 3 signals is unmet with only one bullish and one bearish reading. Price is range-bound with conflicting short-term momentum and 4h indicators, while derivatives p..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "27925e30fe6aff2b5a3b60a8bcb0b4c0b39c892523a084ff06783f739eeaa588" }, { "cycleId": "20260724-175612367Z-fa406ecbd7", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260724-175612367Z-fa406ecbd7.json", "ts": "2026-07-24T17:56:12.367Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-24T17:54:19.198Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 36.96; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.97%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9385, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.34%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0100%, open interest 35.99K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence threshold is not met (1 bullish, 1 bearish vs 3 required). BTC is range-bound with conflicting technicals: a MACD golden cross and RSI near 37 suggest potential accumulation, bu..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "fa406ecbd7edb42b31c62fbed29d3df17ca83e89c1135751087ae8fd7e623311" }, { "cycleId": "20260724-175542000Z-245c086b1e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260724-175542000Z-245c086b1e.json", "ts": "2026-07-24T17:55:42.000Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1962, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1962, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.2693, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-24T17:54:52.427Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 30.87; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.35%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.929, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.55%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent co..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0005%, open interest 4.96M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technicals show bearish structure (MACD death cross, negative 24h/72h momentum, price below Bollinger band) aligned with a confirmed downtrend, but derivatives sentiment is neutral and the ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "245c086b1e5b90260904b783d73b3115c83ba8d81569aca00436a9f072e62310" }, { "cycleId": "20260724-141802060Z-f73275e9d3", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260724-141802060Z-f73275e9d3.json", "ts": "2026-07-24T14:18:02.060Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.1443, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.0759, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-24T14:15:36.913Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 37.38; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.38%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9182, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.78%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0027%, open interest 762.69K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Mixed signals in a range-bound regime prevent clear directional convergence. Bearish short-term momentum conflicts with agent-hub mean-reversion readings (MACD golden cross, price near lowe..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "f73275e9d324d8a0744a6bc6d10084d2abf4e70db320dfc5b5ef92700c18f4d9" }, { "cycleId": "20260724-141719992Z-b47c7968fa", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260724-141719992Z-b47c7968fa.json", "ts": "2026-07-24T14:17:19.992Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.1533, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.9346, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-24T14:15:36.323Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 34.86; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.99%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9368, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.38%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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The..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c33bb92650099e0b70494706d380e3045384789634529fabf5093f94c4252b41" }, { "cycleId": "20260724-103008674Z-a4b4dfadde", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260724-103008674Z-a4b4dfadde.json", "ts": "2026-07-24T10:30:08.674Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0912, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0912, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.617, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-24T10:29:32.596Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 45.05; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.89%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9414, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.28%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Technicals are mixed (neutral RSI, conflicting MACD/MA trends, bala..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "1181f1f32cde56eb38f81b93525c7d7d9b3131aa829a385f0667615047977a31" }, { "cycleId": "20260724-064230829Z-425112f059", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260724-064230829Z-425112f059.json", "ts": "2026-07-24T06:42:30.829Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0452, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.3573, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-24T06:41:54.755Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 50.99; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.86%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9419, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.27%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Downside momentum (-2.86% 24h) hasn't met the 3-signal convergence threshold for a short, while RSI (43) and a MACD go..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d8e222d58fd4e0c6d2145ed70e33a8591812fae774b70c365fda3b863fe1cde3" }, { "cycleId": "20260723-213116387Z-672374d586", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260723-213116387Z-672374d586.json", "ts": "2026-07-23T21:31:16.387Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0087, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.6068, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T21:30:35.700Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 46.07; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.88%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9398, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.31%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0100%, open interest 35.62K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "BTCUSDT is range-bound with mixed technicals and balanced derivatives positioning. The required convergence threshold of 3 aligned signals is not met (only 1 bearish signal present), indica..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "672374d586568c3066780dc11e7263d1913128e5d6b4aafd968d7edcfc0c27ce" }, { "cycleId": "20260723-175113128Z-7aafd1c18b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260723-175113128Z-7aafd1c18b.json", "ts": "2026-07-23T17:51:13.128Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.085, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.085, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.6121, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T17:48:56.790Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 40.45; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.32%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9215, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.71%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0057%, open interest 4.78M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical and qualitative signals fail to converge: only 1 bearish signal detected versus the required 3, with neutral RSI/MACD, negative short-term momentum, balanced derivatives positioni..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7aafd1c18b98c4238ed92c072f9b0b7d60b0c87859c4c7ef0fef3f344ad4f3c0" }, { "cycleId": "20260723-175032839Z-bca05c7d07", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260723-175032839Z-bca05c7d07.json", "ts": "2026-07-23T17:50:32.839Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0187, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.0596, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T17:48:56.103Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 44.24; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.28%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9114, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.93%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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ETHUSDT is range-bound near 1888 with mixed technicals (bearish short-term momentum offset by a MACD golden cross and neutral RSI). D..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bca05c7d07bfd2b0b53633f51bc84160c87dc18eed28683643cf63626b908deb" }, { "cycleId": "20260723-174958378Z-ef225054f5", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260723-174958378Z-ef225054f5.json", "ts": "2026-07-23T17:49:58.378Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0172, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.7828, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T17:49:28.671Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 42.13; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.90%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9418, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.27%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Only one bearish signal is present against the three required, while remaining technical and sentiment reads ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ef225054f59813466420f6a02f695c0715048b3cebd1d09ef92625033980c388" }, { "cycleId": "20260723-143725824Z-29cf492483", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260723-143725824Z-29cf492483.json", "ts": "2026-07-23T14:37:25.824Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0515, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0515, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.5689, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T14:35:09.876Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 44.90; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.29%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9209, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.73%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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BTC remains in a ranging regime with neutral momentum, mixed moving averages, and balanced deri..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "4299afeb031c4e63529e25661fc6ae614b2480954edd16aa6d692196dac7783b" }, { "cycleId": "20260723-035021273Z-66da80e84a", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260723-035021273Z-66da80e84a.json", "ts": "2026-07-23T03:50:21.273Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0914, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0914, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.5562, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T03:48:11.667Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 52.87; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.29%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9239, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.66%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0028%, open interest 4.43M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signal convergence fails the required threshold with only 1 bullish signal against 3 required. Price remains choppy in a range-bound regime, derivatives positioning is balanced, and broader..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "66da80e84a447e48bf26b011fc4d94ad9cec5be74f32f067539a913e8e90ba25" }, { "cycleId": "20260723-034953324Z-53518c32b0", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260723-034953324Z-53518c32b0.json", "ts": "2026-07-23T03:49:53.324Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T03:48:10.353Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 52.51; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.94%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9426, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.25%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0004%, open interest 35.27K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signal convergence is unmet with only one bullish and one bearish technical reading against the required threshold of three. Price is range-bound with balanced derivatives positioning, near..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "53518c32b0ec4c41fc390b2ec17420c1c7e56c56d0dc4e57553e549c97c42608" }, { "cycleId": "20260723-034920666Z-c7c6f7f862", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260723-034920666Z-c7c6f7f862.json", "ts": "2026-07-23T03:49:20.666Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1447, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1447, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.6956, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T03:48:43.612Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 56.22; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.28%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9186, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.78%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Range-bound regime, balanced derivatives positioning, and mixed technicals (MACD cross offset by neutral RSI at 56.22 and mixed..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c7c6f7f862a017ad8124f75a882569088deb40bdc52aafd6b6a754eb8a3feb2f" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-213334978Z-8f0d4160c6", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-213334978Z-8f0d4160c6.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T21:33:34.978Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.076, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.076, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.1594, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T21:31:09.458Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 54.80; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.25%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.922, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.70%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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SOLUSDT is trapped in a range-bound regime with neutral momentum and balanced derivatives positioning. While MACD shows a recent go..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "8f0d4160c659c75af78b62e49478690ab3654b819422ec1b46379e198d3c0e3a" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-213259022Z-46cde14abe", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-213259022Z-46cde14abe.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T21:32:59.022Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T21:31:08.846Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 59.65; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.25%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9142, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.87%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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The market is range-bound..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "46cde14abe61f36064131fdbcac1e4b7b89b35e1dc39641203f7396a6ad289c4" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-213219009Z-3cf96c4340", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-213219009Z-3cf96c4340.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T21:32:19.009Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0735, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0735, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.5003, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T21:31:41.426Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 56.90; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.91%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9388, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.34%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Short-term bearish momentum clashes with a 4h MACD golden cross, while balanced derivatives pos..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "23d737d85fed19601db70754f78f39247e9fbe7f511765fdc498e961440ca858" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-103640208Z-526f6ee5c4", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-103640208Z-526f6ee5c4.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T10:36:40.208Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T10:34:58.032Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 62.86; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.19%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8921, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.35%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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With zero converging directional signals in a range-bo..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "526f6ee5c4c83797e17e66abc60cbe70bc3911fd86fc4812ed653bda68032e9e" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-103605464Z-8363bafffb", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-103605464Z-8363bafffb.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T10:36:05.464Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0943, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0943, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.0753, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T10:35:30.893Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 58.03; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.95%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9091, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.98%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0045%, open interest 35.15K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signals fail the required convergence threshold (1 bullish vs 3 needed). Technical context is mixed with a MACD golden cross offset by neutral RSI, mixed moving averages, and a range-bound ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "8363bafffb63e31d156b9a55971a5d26d6ef8d3e45f21358d319ff70f6e90d4a" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-064559247Z-19b19513b2", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-064559247Z-19b19513b2.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T06:45:59.247Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T06:43:40.306Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 51.58; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.21%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8941, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.31%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Derivatives positioning is balanced with neutral funding. The re..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "19b19513b2fcf2573f855e1f4f89a41b811597188865684cad5633c30d657dba" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-064522579Z-011c3f51df", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-064522579Z-011c3f51df.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T06:45:22.579Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T06:43:39.739Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 60.03; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.22%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8899, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.40%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Catalyst ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "2ac4e993818723867dfcef4cd71dcd0f4e5f79e09d56749497e49e66b47be68f" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-035240362Z-912d88c594", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-035240362Z-912d88c594.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T03:52:40.362Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1115, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1115, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.8139, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T03:50:15.560Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 62.02; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.15%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8945, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.30%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Macro and news catalysts are absent, deri..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "1f4700157fd66393d3264593cf68744b9f00de78a2a251950483156e3e4531a1" }, { "cycleId": "20260722-035131407Z-0c04c5e8e9", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260722-035131407Z-0c04c5e8e9.json", "ts": "2026-07-22T03:51:31.407Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0996, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0996, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.4833, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-22T03:50:48.075Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 63.80; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 0.97%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9049, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.08%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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The asset trades in a range-bound regime with unclear mark..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "0c04c5e8e9916f58a247bd76018f51890300a1a1678e6af50d261048c39b7c51" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-213713472Z-406899dceb", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-213713472Z-406899dceb.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T21:37:13.472Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1352, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1352, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.208, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T21:34:46.976Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 62.04; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.17%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8913, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.37%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Despite a 4h MACD golden cross, broader momentum is weak, market intel is unclear, and derivatives p..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "406899dceb14cd13a78350d03fe1e44a88b176dd60750540401ffbc0ba979b3c" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-213638586Z-54c21fabda", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-213638586Z-54c21fabda.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T21:36:38.586Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1344, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1344, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.0838, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T21:34:46.414Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 65.65; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.19%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8905, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.39%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Market regime is range-bound, RSI is neutral at 65.65, derivative positioning is balanced,..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "54c21fabdaf023a1fdb42accbcef719d71183a26267f035b684a65def50c31f2" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-213558313Z-fc78fb8b47", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-213558313Z-fc78fb8b47.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T21:35:58.313Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0919, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0919, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.6417, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T21:35:19.028Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 64.41; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 0.96%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9049, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.08%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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The as..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "a68334663fc0bb5b3db56dd6be231177e06b086cb47773045206764597f7378f" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-174930163Z-d513dc32d3", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-174930163Z-d513dc32d3.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T17:49:30.163Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1041, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1041, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.2255, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T17:47:38.268Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 63.59; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.01%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9048, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.08%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0121%, open interest 35.38K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "BTCUSDT is range-bound with insufficient signal convergence; only 1 of the 3 required bullish triggers is active. Despite positive short-term momentum and a MACD golden cross, derivatives p..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d513dc32d379ea3e9d728846bfd415561c4fa2e5b3b662fdf3b73dad1c8dff30" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-174845918Z-6b3344b774", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-174845918Z-6b3344b774.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T17:48:45.918Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1302, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1302, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.8565, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T17:48:12.259Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 62.98; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.26%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8892, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.42%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0053%, open interest 775.37K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "ETHUSDT is trading in a range with neutral derivatives positioning and absent macro/news catalysts. Only 2 of the 3 required convergent signals are present (both technical), failing the str..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "6b3344b774ae6a1a5cc05a14455c6cef0846a6ce012310089c1161d29a3ee740" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-142819168Z-ee33f0a2bf", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-142819168Z-ee33f0a2bf.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T14:28:19.168Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1571, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1571, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.1477, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T14:25:59.200Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 63.84; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.21%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8909, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.38%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0007%, open interest 4.53M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence threshold not met (2 bullish signals vs 3 required). Price is range-bound at 78.08 with a MACD golden cross and RSI 63.84, but 24h/72h momentum is neutral, MA trend is mixed, an..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ee33f0a2bf0e5d8ab742d9e0df02ac90865ca83f8fbb097c9ca60a98955f467d" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-142740363Z-d0f5b3bdca", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-142740363Z-d0f5b3bdca.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T14:27:40.363Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1485, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1485, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.8475, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T14:25:57.414Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 70.44; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.00%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9068, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.03%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0092%, open interest 35.34K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical momentum shows bullish structure (MACD golden cross, MA alignment), but price is confined to a range regime with overbought RSI (70.44) and neutral derivatives positioning. The sy..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d0f5b3bdca0a1e9d0b804eb173680c53df2f8ffe657f7e6d1f2e932ccbcae36d" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-142714498Z-19a18cb081", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-142714498Z-19a18cb081.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T14:27:14.498Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.5388, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.1929, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T14:26:31.271Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 69.45; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.25%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8898, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.40%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0032%, open interest 772.06K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.65, "reason": "Uptrend regime is confirmed with positive 24h/72h momentum and a 4h MACD golden cross. Moving averages align bullishly and the technical verdict is strongly bullish, satisfying the 3-signal..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "19a18cb08102b8d351c890416a6472ba16671d7cb45f2343a850cb9ec7c5dd70" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-103658481Z-a4fd2fa24e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-103658481Z-a4fd2fa24e.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T10:36:58.481Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.6069, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.6616, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T10:34:32.792Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 67.18; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.24%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8925, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.35%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0047%, open interest 4.61M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.75, "reason": "Uptrend regime confirmed with four convergent bullish signals exceeding the trade threshold. Positive 24h/72h momentum, a 4h MACD golden cross, and an RSI of 67.18 indicate continuation pot..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "a4fd2fa24e65826f7677676fe455a46868aea63a1ce6c53605e91e3aa090943f" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-103623510Z-c4b6731132", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-103623510Z-c4b6731132.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T10:36:23.510Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1353, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1353, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.7007, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T10:34:31.676Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 68.27; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.00%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9078, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.01%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0048%, open interest 35.32K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Only 2 bullish signals are detected, falling short of the 3 required for convergence. BTCUSDT is currently range-bound and trading slightly extended above the Bollinger upper band. Derivati..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c4b67311323014ffb8aeba3aac4d0cc6b64d3246b0dd1975739b5f21fb20d71e" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-103542869Z-1509405aee", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-103542869Z-1509405aee.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T10:35:42.869Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.6817, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.4197, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T10:35:04.599Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 73.33; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.25%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8928, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.34%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0013%, open interest 752.96K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.72, "reason": "Uptrend regime confirmed by convergent 24h/72h momentum and a 4h MACD golden cross. Price trades above all key moving averages, while low funding rates and balanced open interest indicate s..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "1509405aee7981c116aee1b37e3f20598884b7b8ac3e82b2cab0ab64e6e33014" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-064532004Z-06d042920b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-064532004Z-06d042920b.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T06:45:32.004Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.6417, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.6179, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T06:43:02.238Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 70.58; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.27%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8918, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.36%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0091%, open interest 4.52M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.72, "reason": "Uptrend regime confirmed by converging positive momentum and a MACD golden cross, with price consistently trading above key moving averages. Neutral derivatives funding indicates balanced l..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "06d042920b380c191712b80cf9d159cdc2e63f07d64a0c518811fd4a1fe2edba" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-064448531Z-8c28fcc58e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-064448531Z-8c28fcc58e.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T06:44:48.531Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1209, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1209, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.3912, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T06:43:01.088Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 64.96; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.02%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9078, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.01%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0005%, open interest 35.15K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Only one bullish technical signal is present against a required convergence threshold of three. The market is in a ranging regime with balanced derivatives positioning and unconfirmed macro..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "8c28fcc58e47902fb5450d771daeb883ed39d352e3c24c6b399a4be8f5b32d58" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-064409773Z-e5a75eba04", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-064409773Z-e5a75eba04.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T06:44:09.773Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.7, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.6143, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.554, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T06:43:34.293Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 72.37; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.26%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8913, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.37%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0034%, open interest 741.5K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.7, "reason": "Technical signals converge with strong positive momentum (3.94% 24h), confirmed uptrend regime, and a fresh MACD golden cross. Price holds above all major MAs. Balanced funding and neutral ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "e5a75eba04c5e371b3db9ff8e0c1839748c2ccaa523787b60cbe964338eb35be" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-035209328Z-f37249ace3", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-035209328Z-f37249ace3.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T03:52:09.328Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1739, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1739, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.4829, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T03:49:32.074Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 69.98; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.30%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8923, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.35%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0046%, open interest 708.38K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical indicators show strong bullish momentum and moving average alignment, but derivatives sentiment is neutral and macro/news catalysts are unavailable. The bullish convergence count ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "f37249ace334cca69191c0f0c7a1c182bc9763ab337d7fc48c194d830d94080a" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-035130008Z-3ccd8d026f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-035130008Z-3ccd8d026f.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T03:51:30.008Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0953, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0953, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.3255, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T03:49:31.365Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 61.05; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.05%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9089, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.99%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0005%, open interest 34.84K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence threshold unmet: only 1 bullish signal versus the 3 required. Range-bound regime, balanced derivatives positioning, and absent macro/news catalysts prevent trade initiation desp..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "3ccd8d026fb6eafbd55416fc3c6739ee9ef4950de5db0be43e0919e52ecbd1f5" }, { "cycleId": "20260721-035053042Z-1ea1aa5cf8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260721-035053042Z-1ea1aa5cf8.json", "ts": "2026-07-21T03:50:53.042Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.5216, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.5648, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-21T03:50:04.727Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 67.78; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.29%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8924, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.35%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0067%, open interest 4.56M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.65, "reason": "Bullish convergence threshold met (3/3). Price broke above 78.07 resistance with positive 24h/72h momentum, supported by a MACD golden cross and verified range regime. 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Derivative..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c4451053968a8d4dc8d25669290a25ba0546e43233f9675bf1f06f5bc2be9c99" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-213642430Z-2a59499575", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-213642430Z-2a59499575.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T21:36:42.430Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0945, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0945, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.2749, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T21:34:42.287Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 60.41; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.07%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9123, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.91%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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BTC is trading in a confirmed range regime and pressing immediate resistance at 65427, with balanced derivatives positi..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "2a59499575b0ce09cbad61ff18d05206e09cf4216de142e98d86e747af28d4bb" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-213603753Z-71da92d3da", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-213603753Z-71da92d3da.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T21:36:03.753Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1584, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1584, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.6921, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T21:35:16.183Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 66.12; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.30%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8936, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.32%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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The qualitative laye..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "71da92d3dad2cb1acad38c10a463dfc20c4d82503cb28421b41c3bf1d14e4898" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-182444575Z-10496c709d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-182444575Z-10496c709d.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T18:24:44.575Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1474, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1474, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.4261, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T18:22:12.942Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 66.79; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.33%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8969, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.25%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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The required convergence threshold is unmet (2/3 si..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "10496c709d56bc396369b869bd635adb0efb306186f135f568de44aa66662eb9" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-182402679Z-c82b54161d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-182402679Z-c82b54161d.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T18:24:02.679Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0945, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0945, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.5558, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T18:22:12.249Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 64.35; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.07%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9147, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.86%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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The market remains range-bound with ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c82b54161d63b326c3b9eaeb9cb1c8fd28779e89108444a5d533e327cdc70157" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-182327906Z-a361b9cd6e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-182327906Z-a361b9cd6e.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T18:23:27.906Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.6, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.4227, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.4227, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.7847, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T18:22:45.417Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 66.85; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.34%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8935, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.32%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Price is testing 78.07 resistance. 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Derivatives funding an..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "03124cb7382f1a403e25e252ba845db478739df137ffe788e354316f71fa852d" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-073355426Z-bef14dd0b6", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-073355426Z-bef14dd0b6.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T07:33:55.426Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0694, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.6797, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T07:33:20.290Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 49.83; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.23%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9322, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.48%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0006%, open interest 4.57M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "SOLUSDT is trading in a defined range with neutral derivatives positioning and near-zero funding. Only one bearish technical signal is present, failing to meet the three-signal convergence ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bef14dd0b6fef2af18c16c92d843201506ebffad7f3737ebf0e10629a165f9d8" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-040927419Z-1018e1bdbc", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-040927419Z-1018e1bdbc.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T04:09:27.419Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T04:07:19.624Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 56.17; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.12%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.939, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.33%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0068%, open interest 4.64M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "SOLUSDT is range-bound at 76.46 with zero converging directional signals. Technicals are mixed: RSI is neutral at 56.17, MACD shows a death cross, and moving averages conflict. Derivatives ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "1018e1bdbc193701648385e580bd3be92794c77aef1a4cdec4c3aae183641e2c" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-040853819Z-ac95096ddb", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-040853819Z-ac95096ddb.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T04:08:53.819Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T04:07:18.881Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 57.12; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.06%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9524, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.04%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Price is trapped in a range regime with neutral short-term momentum (0.29% 24h), balanced derivatives positioning (funding 0.0..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ac95096ddbaef909d109fdd6811d02ae0011e1d948f846c56aa6d501af153493" }, { "cycleId": "20260720-040826911Z-8ffc5ed38b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260720-040826911Z-8ffc5ed38b.json", "ts": "2026-07-20T04:08:26.911Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-20T04:07:51.900Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 56.87; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 0.75%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.968, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 0.70%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Despite short-term bullish technical structure, directional signal convergence is at zero, failing the threshold for entry." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "8ffc5ed38b25e09e9f2c4d215980b27a59ba636cd6eb52442f64d7684f2ba5a2" }, { "cycleId": "20260719-211130054Z-99f4be52e0", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260719-211130054Z-99f4be52e0.json", "ts": "2026-07-19T21:11:30.054Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0459, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.5918, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-19T21:09:24.818Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 53.43; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.08%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9503, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.08%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Signal conver..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "a8292b5b65fd283fe05ea16f511f22c0a67edfbd0670bec84f898caaaeb3b15e" }, { "cycleId": "20260719-040005916Z-fbfc1ae390", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260719-040005916Z-fbfc1ae390.json", "ts": "2026-07-19T04:00:05.916Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0135, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.665, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-19T03:58:24.343Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 57.95; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 0.85%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9474, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.15%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Technicals show mixed MA trends and neutral RSI despite a MACD golden cross. Derivatives ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "e83bda25607f00c7c2f47b2f02107a0abd0b2f3e16e3866d5d3d7902dedf6cab" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-171859394Z-e02c2334f3", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-171859394Z-e02c2334f3.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T17:18:59.394Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1024, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1024, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.7467, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T17:16:55.290Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 42.95; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.18%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.932, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.48%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0100%, open interest 4.96M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signal convergence threshold not met; only one bearish technical reading exists alongside neutral momentum, balanced derivatives positioning, and a range-bound regime. Without aligned macro..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "e02c2334f3e3395ca10745c493cc1cc2d0b991da530984987832547d335f5d5d" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-171832691Z-dd65cc3544", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-171832691Z-dd65cc3544.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T17:18:32.691Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0384, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.7573, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T17:16:53.705Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 54.97; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.87%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9429, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.25%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0024%, open interest 34.36K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence threshold unmet (1 bullish signal vs 3 required). BTC is range-bound with conflicting technicals (MACD golden cross offset by neutral RSI at 54.97 and mixed moving averages). De..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "dd65cc3544db6f04daa3b627094967c50da7c28f664c915a3bd42bb900d4636f" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-171756820Z-13ddcb34e1", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-171756820Z-13ddcb34e1.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T17:17:56.820Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.1594, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 6.2706, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T17:17:27.396Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 49.12; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.17%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9284, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.56%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0034%, open interest 762.31K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Bullish signal convergence (2) falls short of the required threshold (3). Price remains range-bound with mixed technicals (neutral RSI at 49, mixed MAs despite a 4h MACD golden cross) and b..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "13ddcb34e160d4bce28a30c289bf3b24e3f62be038e08aa9b93437e65dfa168e" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-135458076Z-cbb0b6a810", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-135458076Z-cbb0b6a810.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T13:54:58.076Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T13:52:25.794Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.725, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 37.63; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.24%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9261, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.61%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent co..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0069%, open interest 4.9M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signals lack the required convergence for execution. While Agent Hub technicals lean bearish (MACD death cross, bearish MA alignment) and the market regime is downtrend, 4h momentum is flat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "cbb0b6a810df2dc305131a4f6104bdb2eed12e11c3941dfdb6ce1a62f5fe0966" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-135428700Z-44158ec007", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-135428700Z-44158ec007.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T13:54:28.700Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0839, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.3989, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T13:52:24.449Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 51.27; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.91%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9377, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.36%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0016%, open interest 34.19K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technicals show a mild bullish lean (MACD golden cross, neutral RSI), but the market remains range-bound with balanced derivatives positioning. Crucially, the bullish signal count (2) falls..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "44158ec0070e4dbb2d52632a048974cf18b22a3a6c45194844a0b990155e1f03" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-135353167Z-1b05f7ad5e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-135353167Z-1b05f7ad5e.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T13:53:53.167Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.45, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.162, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.3815, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 6.6541, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T13:52:57.650Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 46.74; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.24%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9271, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.59%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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The asset remains confine..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d29f3cf3c661cd63b247b479c634838947c02ffbc7d7fd42701e5ec70b14b113" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-094947717Z-2ee1ee171b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-094947717Z-2ee1ee171b.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T09:49:47.717Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0839, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.3176, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T09:48:04.532Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 48.25; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.27%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.922, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.70%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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The asset is range-bound with conflicting technicals (bearish MACD cross vs balanced derivatives ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "b3bdd610e4ee6c8a7c1bea5c2676cdb5db1d19ab60370dfecfea06de2b22c734" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-033804642Z-24a3c8a305", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-033804642Z-24a3c8a305.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T03:38:04.642Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0839, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.2118, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T03:36:22.587Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 47.53; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.42%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9105, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.95%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0062%, open interest 752.94K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signal convergence threshold unmet with only 1 bullish input against the required 3. Price is range-bound near 1842 with neutral derivatives positioning, slightly negative 72h momentum, and..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "24a3c8a305bf413d2a6240763ffae791e2169913e5d5762f4deb1747ad35bd0f" }, { "cycleId": "20260718-033729739Z-5a34231ede", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260718-033729739Z-5a34231ede.json", "ts": "2026-07-18T03:37:29.739Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0617, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.7061, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-18T03:36:55.474Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 50.24; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.05%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9266, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.60%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0023%, open interest 34.2K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence requirement unmet with only 1 bullish signal against the 3 needed. BTC is trading in a range-bound regime with mixed moving averages, neutral momentum, and balanced derivatives ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "5a34231ede29cc7bc51f5b520ffe5641b0638af3ccc2ff8b5f727afa0efe7f81" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-211159837Z-95bd7b8ef0", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-211159837Z-95bd7b8ef0.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T21:11:59.837Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1388, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1388, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.5007, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T21:09:34.826Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 40.48; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.41%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9084, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.00%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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SOL is range-bound with neutral derivatives, mixed MAs, and absent news/macro catalysts, favoring a wait-and-see approach." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "95bd7b8ef056214f77e8379cf45d86b140fe4a89775b840110856c5d150ed77a" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-211121803Z-c1d889a483", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-211121803Z-c1d889a483.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T21:11:21.803Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T21:09:34.192Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 47.98; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.48%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9083, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.00%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Technical readings conflict as negative 24h/72h momentum clash..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c1d889a48301d2abeb3eac9a78d59cca72b58d5726745435c310d0e5e9258562" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-211039771Z-a100f8492a", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-211039771Z-a100f8492a.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T21:10:39.771Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.054, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.8454, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T21:10:06.753Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 52.47; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.10%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9258, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.62%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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The convergence threshold requires three aligned signals to trade, and derivat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "353eb2eceae0391b7df2758f5f6085335f90cb7148df426f53c0c974aecf3637" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-173430210Z-faa8cb3996", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-173430210Z-faa8cb3996.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T17:34:30.210Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T17:32:47.214Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 48.41; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.56%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9079, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.01%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Technicals are mixed: negative 24h/72h momentum conflicts with a 4h MACD golden cross, price sits in a confirmed range regi..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "faa8cb3996c31a25923946e240cceb4b9fe62700fce18d7d84227ed4d3a99f36" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-173354629Z-55f99ada9e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-173354629Z-55f99ada9e.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T17:33:54.629Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0321, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.1573, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T17:33:19.823Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 51.54; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.13%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9255, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.62%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Deri..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "785319e478a4567a281636918bfc93f1cc4e61e5d282fbee8cbff615bec2b37d" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-140714748Z-605edb82f4", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-140714748Z-605edb82f4.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T14:07:14.748Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0988, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.8995, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T14:05:32.479Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 42.78; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.57%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.91, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.96%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Balanced derivati..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "605edb82f4c28f85bb3a60884cf552fd0cf0e3212a6ee6462863bace4b3db27a" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-140635401Z-cf8fff8428", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-140635401Z-cf8fff8428.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T14:06:35.401Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0935, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0935, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.3525, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T14:06:05.353Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 42.70; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.11%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.931, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.50%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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No ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "cf8fff84285cccdb261164b6ceca3258139a2ae2d97b6dc6a86dd0fe116f8f8c" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-101455834Z-c0ce016da8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-101455834Z-c0ce016da8.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T10:14:55.834Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1118, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.8405, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T10:12:42.843Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 34.90; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.45%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9042, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.09%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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ETH is range-bound with neutral derivatives funding and mixed technicals (MACD golden cros..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "2d7655fce5bad3f8b7c63be40d37bf0ff34c4682a38412bb26a3de6f18239f46" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-101348818Z-bef6aed250", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-101348818Z-bef6aed250.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T10:13:48.818Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0571, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.5827, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T10:13:15.197Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 40.38; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.08%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9275, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.58%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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BTC is range-bound with balanced derivatives positioning and neutral macro/news context. Mixed 4h technicals—bearish 24h momentum and RSI below ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bef6aed250a9e86cb7c5e57e88ad90f8b58e8520b255da1b9579d714d599d520" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-063203887Z-969fae1498", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-063203887Z-969fae1498.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T06:32:03.887Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T06:29:38.974Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 43.85; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.55%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8805, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.61%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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The..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "969fae149855b36e75104687374cb9a86c7b4ce649b732d14c36d7cf47d92655" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-063124833Z-08501bba99", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-063124833Z-08501bba99.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T06:31:24.833Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T06:29:38.034Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 38.76; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.11%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9263, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.61%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Price trades below the 7 and 25-period MAs, RSI is neutral-low, and derivati..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "08501bba99d89ad3c7eb0a10a387d7796dda3f6dbb7d8272740bcb5b8405ab85" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-063046263Z-6d2e3acf0f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-063046263Z-6d2e3acf0f.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T06:30:46.263Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0229, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 5.1497, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T06:30:11.779Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 34.45; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.50%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9014, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.15%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Derivatives positioning ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "6d2e3acf0fbcb0a226c4ccfc731db1f3e33d0fbf2937fb51bf5fe1f0ccc131f9" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-034313376Z-7a71a92a39", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-034313376Z-7a71a92a39.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T03:43:13.376Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0075, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 4.8148, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T03:41:03.379Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 37.68; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.50%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9062, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.05%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Derivatives are balanced, news is absent, a..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ebe2f9852af778c04d223da8dbba8bb49a2354cff50886c23b853f5b35397afb" }, { "cycleId": "20260717-034208427Z-93e98c4cd6", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260717-034208427Z-93e98c4cd6.json", "ts": "2026-07-17T03:42:08.427Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1523, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1523, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.4753, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T03:41:35.260Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 49.37; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8892, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.42%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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The market remains range-bound with bal..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "cb9a54a14bbdc652b27ee1886f1a3e58d77a4c56af95d004d42bf0f706d16f51" }, { "cycleId": "20260716-174216926Z-efd50ae6c0", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260716-174216926Z-efd50ae6c0.json", "ts": "2026-07-16T17:42:16.926Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0401, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 5.1105, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T17:41:52.338Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 41.86; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.47%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9107, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.95%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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BTCUSDT is trading in a tight range near $64.17K, sitting directly under immediate resistance at $64.22K-$64.42K. Technic..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "3d6712e135adfd8b4cd3ff34e3047ebfb8683c5ab1cf3082d07ec84053767f2e" }, { "cycleId": "20260716-102304233Z-a54299650a", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260716-102304233Z-a54299650a.json", "ts": "2026-07-16T10:23:04.233Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2616, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2616, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.3379, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T10:22:26.816Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 59.52; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.55%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8435, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.42%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0099%, open interest 747.4K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Uptrend regime and MACD golden cross suggest underlying strength, but convergence requirements are unmet (2/3 bullish signals needed). Short-term momentum is neutral, derivatives positionin..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "a54299650ae7b23fe9868d288677179d365795e07fdf9bdf6ebc2006867a6ed1" }, { "cycleId": "20260716-063556454Z-bb82445c18", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260716-063556454Z-bb82445c18.json", "ts": "2026-07-16T06:35:56.454Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0344, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.0188, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T06:33:27.726Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 52.02; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.45%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.901, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.16%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0049%, open interest 4.43M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence threshold unmet (only 1 of 3 required signals align). SOL is range-bound with near-zero momentum, RSI at 52, mixed MA trend, and balanced derivatives funding/OI. No qualitative ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bb82445c18740f9c463951b42479f29e747d30e63dbecacf13d662468c8d8fd4" }, { "cycleId": "20260716-063520297Z-6bf74076cf", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260716-063520297Z-6bf74076cf.json", "ts": "2026-07-16T06:35:20.297Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1017, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.1493, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T06:33:26.257Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 58.13; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.99%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9172, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.81%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0064%, open interest 35.18K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "BTCUSDT is range-bound with neutral short-term momentum and balanced derivatives positioning. Only one technical indicator shows a bullish bias, failing the 3-signal convergence threshold r..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "6bf74076cfe4683f02b96057658394451bea366057bd550d663626a3a441e947" }, { "cycleId": "20260716-063442999Z-bdda39d626", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260716-063442999Z-bdda39d626.json", "ts": "2026-07-16T06:34:42.999Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.68, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.2448, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.315, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T06:33:59.945Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 70.85; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.45%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8503, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.27%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0091%, open interest 743.89K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.68, "reason": "Convergence threshold met with 3 aligned bullish signals. ETH exhibits confirmed uptrend regime, positive 24h/72h momentum, a 4h MACD golden cross, and price trading above key moving averag..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "bdda39d6262819c19a1ef85009fc1653aef0e547b284335090ef4887ee830175" }, { "cycleId": "20260716-034359493Z-fcf9895b99", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260716-034359493Z-fcf9895b99.json", "ts": "2026-07-16T03:43:59.493Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0324, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.4411, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T03:41:30.563Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 49.16; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.46%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9039, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.10%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0067%, open interest 4.27M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Bearish technical signals (MACD death cross, neutral RSI) are present but fail the convergence threshold (2/3 bearish count required). Price remains trapped in a range with balanced derivat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "fcf9895b999e4c666d7d976aa68d282997531919944670c8e95ef400ad1b9206" }, { "cycleId": "20260716-034316840Z-75df97ff05", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260716-034316840Z-75df97ff05.json", "ts": "2026-07-16T03:43:16.840Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1203, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1203, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.541, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T03:41:28.621Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 57.28; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.02%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9177, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.80%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0057%, open interest 35.26K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Only 1 of the 3 required converging signals is present. The asset remains range-bound with neutral derivatives positioning, unclear market intel, and conflicting technicals (MACD golden cro..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "75df97ff05d2bd97e0b952974ff8ff1e7c192049f102920e263c9e4234e57b9b" }, { "cycleId": "20260716-034244624Z-843b339120", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260716-034244624Z-843b339120.json", "ts": "2026-07-16T03:42:44.624Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.0371, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.8542, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T03:42:02.997Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 71.15; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.50%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8512, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.25%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0059%, open interest 741.66K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.72, "reason": "Uptrend confirmed by 3 converging bullish signals: positive 24h/72h momentum, regime trend confirmation, and a MACD golden cross with price above all major MAs. Balanced derivatives positio..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "843b33912060f199d3c10c09d71d31ef95604c2d037c5b22ed465b1f4058acdb" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-211838060Z-88f28ca20b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-211838060Z-88f28ca20b.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T21:18:38.060Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.028, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.7722, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T21:16:27.932Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 52.28; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.47%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9018, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.14%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0082%, open interest 4.11M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signals lack convergence with only one bearish technical read against a range-bound regime, neutral momentum, and balanced derivatives positioning. Fails the required three-signal threshold..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "88f28ca20b5e5b36f41f26c45c99964756b9e88222e656aae5a2ee4d99712c57" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-211802331Z-bcb762dee1", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-211802331Z-bcb762dee1.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T21:18:02.331Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0707, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.0457, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T21:16:26.115Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 59.80; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.02%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9162, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.83%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0009%, open interest 34.97K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence threshold unmet with only 1 bullish signal against the 3 required for execution. Momentum is muted (24h +0.07%), the market regime is ranging, and moving averages are mixed desp..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bcb762dee10fd5161c4ef124c3a61142a15639d714125b72cc25ea610de6b8d0" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-211733081Z-ea165e92c7", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-211733081Z-ea165e92c7.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T21:17:33.081Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.68, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.2448, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.2248, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T21:17:00.086Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 72.29; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8485, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.30%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0058%, open interest 728.21K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.68, "reason": "Three converging bullish signals confirm a strong uptrend regime, supported by a MACD golden cross, price holding above all key moving averages, and robust 72-hour momentum (+6.59%). While ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "ea165e92c7f9b82463779b7f4f133d6456999988f463355a8b60a12c20f2648d" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-174255174Z-86a094a80f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-174255174Z-86a094a80f.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T17:42:55.174Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.0038, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0038, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.7477, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T17:40:42.649Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 54.87; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8998, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.19%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Only one bearish technical reading is active, which fails to meet the three-signal conve..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "86a094a80f1b3778840b4c0a3344ca9c7c73e53739620544fc22a794dfe08ada" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-174223391Z-d21d8b2845", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-174223391Z-d21d8b2845.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T17:42:23.391Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T17:40:41.478Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 61.90; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.07%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9158, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.84%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Despite isolated..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d21d8b28455379260f51018cf4d7c02d0373aa72b273b172bf6de04c77fbed75" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-174153785Z-bf3821adc8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-174153785Z-bf3821adc8.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T17:41:53.785Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.27, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.9908, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T17:41:14.484Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 72.18; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.58%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8463, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.35%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Positive 24h/72h momentum (2.62%/5.62%) aligns with a MACD golden cross, bullish MA alignment, and co..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "bf3821adc8ef21c37c528b84f0b0ce21b1bd254575c66d13475e8c9e452574bb" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-141603445Z-baf41c6511", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-141603445Z-baf41c6511.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T14:16:03.445Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.037, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.4498, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T14:13:29.331Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 58.89; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8928, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.34%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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While technical momentum is mildly positive, macro, news, and sentiment fe..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d4f4b64bca8cb7e2e10fc8f6f7ec56c7bb6d1c13fb0a38ac9cbf42d41718c497" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-141447037Z-79fd39fd97", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-141447037Z-79fd39fd97.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T14:14:47.037Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.6, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.216, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.6526, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.0093, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T14:14:01.080Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 75.08; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.58%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8423, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.44%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Derivatives positioning is balanced and neutral macro context avoids ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "79fd39fd97123f9cd8132ca999bbe0e5c7fbb0ee7b8bc9bb1aae61a13b35199c" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-101851620Z-499d315931", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-101851620Z-499d315931.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T10:18:51.620Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T10:16:21.321Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 54.70; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.48%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8892, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.42%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Market is in a range regime with conflicting technicals: short-term bullish momentum is offset by a 4h MACD death ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "499d3159312245d26ac73d018ea698f694c4aaf887e1566bd68b093e863c82d2" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-101811796Z-ab21e5294f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-101811796Z-ab21e5294f.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T10:18:11.796Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0481, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.4117, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T10:16:19.831Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 61.69; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.04%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9084, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.00%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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The converg..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ab21e5294f8c18e5f2beb522dd662f4c950ce903b94f798a58f643c043f748c7" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-101737933Z-bad5706791", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-101737933Z-bad5706791.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T10:17:37.933Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1699, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.22, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T10:16:53.422Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 68.25; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.47%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8563, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.14%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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The regime remains range-bound, derivatives positioning is neutral, and macro/news ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bad57067911cd2867858f749d046e07cfe9a6a8781ec5a580390089f9a16a969" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-063240393Z-b5be5f359e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-063240393Z-b5be5f359e.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T06:32:40.393Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0856, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.4029, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T06:30:05.062Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 59.38; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.48%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8913, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.37%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0094%, open interest 686.33K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.75, "reason": "Uptrend regime confirmed with 3/3 required bullish convergence signals met. Strong 24h momentum (+5.89%), MACD golden cross, and price holding above key moving averages align for upside. Ba..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "9d82a1e994eae1f3a6c4f15011db2e1fdb702bed102e53db4e0da3197ff88761" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-034129546Z-5c36bc8271", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-034129546Z-5c36bc8271.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T03:41:29.546Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0636, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.0539, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T03:39:09.848Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 54.90; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.51%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8909, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.38%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Technicals on the 4H chart are NEUTRAL with a MACD death cross, mixed moving averages, and RSI at 54.90. 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The asset remains in a r..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "39e07a50fb8f6476a89cfd3eca78518ddeac6d656499e895266765a12a0072f7" }, { "cycleId": "20260715-034025627Z-5c64ca5c98", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260715-034025627Z-5c64ca5c98.json", "ts": "2026-07-15T03:40:25.627Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1519, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.0342, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-15T03:39:42.030Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 66.45; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.53%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8569, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.12%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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No macro ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "895d8b4be4616d6ade32cad67fef26e6615c7068867a3d9501d651580e54b1c3" }, { "cycleId": "20260713-113324607Z-d8347c0e37", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260713-113324607Z-d8347c0e37.json", "ts": "2026-07-13T11:33:24.607Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1292, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1292, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-13T11:31:09.633Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 40.86; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.53%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8944, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.30%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Price is range-bound with neutral RSI, mixed moving averages, ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7ae55a337860d3ef534f796819b905f98b95ce3efb203fca795c40a615ce3ecd" }, { "cycleId": "20260713-074439753Z-1c72d69383", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260713-074439753Z-1c72d69383.json", "ts": "2026-07-13T07:44:39.753Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1389, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1389, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.5821, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-13T07:42:35.971Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 41.17; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.57%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8946, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.30%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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While technicals show a mild bearish lean via MACD death cross and price below key MAs, the range-bound regime, b..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "2b6123d54e47f7230dca3b097ffc203faaf0e9b7c3ef1476419c28f369da2f4f" }, { "cycleId": "20260713-040510593Z-074e4141cf", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260713-040510593Z-074e4141cf.json", "ts": "2026-07-13T04:05:10.593Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-13T04:03:23.535Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 39.34; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.95%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9386, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.34%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Price remains range-bound with conflicting 4h technicals: a MACD golden cross is offset by negative shor..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "074e4141cf4638cfe19591b93dc84ab0f82292036e6d1310a9aed1cb40893223" }, { "cycleId": "20260713-040431154Z-0188cc2c5e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260713-040431154Z-0188cc2c5e.json", "ts": "2026-07-13T04:04:31.154Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0201, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 4.2409, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-13T04:03:57.410Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 47.08; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.40%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8956, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.28%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Signal convergence is unmet (1 bearish vs 3 required) and no macro or news catalysts are present." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "0188cc2c5eab900c2e6e323ca6a67b0ad14ee8b2debc6d8acfaf419c82521f6f" }, { "cycleId": "20260712-211016950Z-3e6ad8d259", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260712-211016950Z-3e6ad8d259.json", "ts": "2026-07-12T21:10:16.950Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0216, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.1219, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-12T21:08:09.974Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 46.07; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.33%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9171, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.81%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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The market is trapped in a rangin..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "3e6ad8d259100647cec0b4fba87671f735d9f0683ec1edb9e900f7a2514d87b1" }, { "cycleId": "20260712-210948176Z-c67bd19b20", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260712-210948176Z-c67bd19b20.json", "ts": "2026-07-12T21:09:48.176Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-12T21:08:08.227Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 57.27; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 0.81%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9599, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 0.88%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Despite structurally bullish technicals (MACD golden cross, price above key MAs), momentum is flat, marke..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c67bd19b208e34b70b980004de2f0424663089b257e3e4d72a844727289caedc" }, { "cycleId": "20260712-210916305Z-825faeeae9", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260712-210916305Z-825faeeae9.json", "ts": "2026-07-12T21:09:16.305Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1735, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1735, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.434, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-12T21:08:42.258Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 60.36; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.19%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9223, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.70%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. 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Technical momentum is neutral within a range-bound regime, derivatives positioning is balanced with minimal..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "854dbb594a0628fff3b69b2658d1bba0c8636e5edf2fcca8a0f1cf2728deb12d" }, { "cycleId": "20260712-140042364Z-9043a52fc2", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260712-140042364Z-9043a52fc2.json", "ts": "2026-07-12T14:00:42.364Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0225, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.6721, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-12T13:58:11.297Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 42.64; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.44%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9045, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.08%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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SOLUSDT is range-bound with neutral derivatives positioning and weak downward momentum, lacking the qualitative confirmation ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "9043a52fc20b91be3d866d9b3f4bd2e61f618de253709dc1eb9fefa3ce2c7e1b" }, { "cycleId": "20260712-140009274Z-cafe034e4d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260712-140009274Z-cafe034e4d.json", "ts": "2026-07-12T14:00:09.274Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0741, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0741, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.487, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-12T13:58:09.669Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 55.23; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 0.88%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9483, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.13%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Signal convergence fails as only 1 bullish indicator is present against the 3 required for a trade. 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While underlying moving averages and MACD show a bullish bias, realized volati..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d17ad00ea06bc942ff68cf687eb56c0d95ae468fc609315b21438ae7ae21ddc4" }, { "cycleId": "20260712-040311161Z-b9ee454f40", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260712-040311161Z-b9ee454f40.json", "ts": "2026-07-12T04:03:11.161Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0764, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0764, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.5374, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-12T04:02:37.437Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 39.35; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.41%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.904, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.10%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Market sentim..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "b9ee454f406208e94783507d8c6d0c5cc97a76cb43c6102ea5a45b302cee4ec4" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-211114794Z-5452e122fe", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-211114794Z-5452e122fe.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T21:11:14.794Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0222, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.4028, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T21:09:00.299Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 46.93; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.33%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9177, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.80%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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The trade convergence threshold is not met, with only one bearish ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "5452e122fefdbaa955799ae5d2ab5b4d42e64dadf5a5f298d2f678de0cce7354" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-211043570Z-4544479835", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-211043570Z-4544479835.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T21:10:43.570Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T21:08:58.682Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 62.86; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 0.91%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9418, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.27%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Despite isolated bullish technicals like a MACD golden cross and bullish MA alignment, the ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "45444798357be71bfc733e8ec268272a1ac54e2748080f42a45eff4903f969f6" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-211012831Z-d53312a49d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-211012831Z-d53312a49d.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T21:10:12.831Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.6561, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.2688, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T21:09:32.680Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 68.86; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.18%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9205, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.73%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Price holds above key moving averages (MA7, MA25, MA99), MACD confirms a golden cross, and momentum remains positive. Balance..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "d53312a49d110f437a4d349cf78b8ca774c6a2b7e5cfc42a347e81ebe96c4a9e" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-172029034Z-ea42256f99", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-172029034Z-ea42256f99.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T17:20:29.034Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0279, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.9322, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T17:17:59.419Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 44.58; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.42%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9177, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.80%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Although the technical suite highlights a bearish MACD death cross and mixed moving..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ea42256f99ff766d281c1339e510285f82ec5458eeb6b05cf46da91b6ddbe979" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-171954378Z-dde2136ddd", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-171954378Z-dde2136ddd.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T17:19:54.378Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T17:17:57.995Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 60.92; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 0.95%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.942, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.27%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Price remains trapped in a range-bound regime wi..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "dde2136ddd6fbac5b1678e4f20ade0c84012e1b81ac1c11e0e176ae4312a8729" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-171913559Z-e3d6cb350b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-171913559Z-e3d6cb350b.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T17:19:13.559Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.598, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.1303, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T17:18:31.683Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 67.24; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.23%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9199, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.75%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Price holds above all key moving averages with a 4H MACD golden cross, positive momentum, and RSI a..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "e3d6cb350b0cda0c1546a91a318614c06f0d0db9a15e6da4de5faceeef43f2a8" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-135915862Z-00392b797d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-135915862Z-00392b797d.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T13:59:15.862Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0754, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.8285, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T13:57:02.500Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 46.21; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.41%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9172, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.81%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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SOLUSDT remains in a defined range with neutral momentum, balanced derivatives positioning, and mixed technicals. Catalyst..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "00392b797d4e6fea8b9b997e9e021f181f0c99bcf649ac8a0bfda9bc84e9a16d" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-135844071Z-f1586b5c1b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-135844071Z-f1586b5c1b.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T13:58:44.071Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1653, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1653, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.0162, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T13:57:01.354Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 61.25; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 0.95%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9376, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.36%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. 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The market remains in a defined range regime with balanced deriva..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7aca54eb9cc048c2e5ba16421fb8dcdc01effdda9f59513a9ff540aa9585a946" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-095257859Z-d858c48850", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-095257859Z-d858c48850.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T09:52:57.859Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T09:50:32.125Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 61.12; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.24%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9173, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.80%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Technicals show a MACD death cross but mixed moving ave..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "a27df06e7a28c26ec2ed54d624aab4162e0e08a767c7ae8bab59cbb4dbffbead" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-063005671Z-cefad75193", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-063005671Z-cefad75193.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T06:30:05.671Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1482, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1482, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.2942, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T06:28:04.700Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 61.46; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.31%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9174, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.80%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Price is testing range resistance near 1799-1801 with neutral derivatives positioning and no confirmed macro or ne..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "cefad751936c65b8accc55ef3181408ea3709e7bd1f8e36d66af14e3fe49db0c" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-062933835Z-0d65b1edae", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-062933835Z-0d65b1edae.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T06:29:33.835Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T06:28:04.137Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 60.93; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.06%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9331, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.46%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Price remains range-bound with balanced derivatives positioning, neutral momentum, and no catalyst confirmation, failing the min..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "0d65b1edae16a9f1022a3f87c9a3d4fed5d45f1b4efce7f9bd22b499e9ad3c6d" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-062908182Z-2b9562d072", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-062908182Z-2b9562d072.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T06:29:08.182Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0363, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.1494, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T06:28:37.269Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 44.37; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9132, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.89%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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The asset remains in a range-bound regime with neutral fundin..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "2b9562d0722c63a9eebcc1e5884620f708176fbc20601f7151f05c0882e3fd6c" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-034745336Z-e01277b4af", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-034745336Z-e01277b4af.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T03:47:45.336Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0974, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.3357, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T03:45:28.172Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 60.69; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.38%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.914, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.88%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Although internal technicals show MA uptrend alignment and a MACD cross, the e..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "88982d2ea4408bb505e66e30811b483847ed8a9327f547e7a938730277c188f4" }, { "cycleId": "20260711-034636984Z-98693225fa", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260711-034636984Z-98693225fa.json", "ts": "2026-07-11T03:46:36.984Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0314, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0314, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.6099, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-11T03:46:00.708Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 43.15; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.60%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9081, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.00%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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The market is range..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "786f38f1836ae9784435354f6f3b1cfe722dad10bbae32d7e7d9a4fdb6341cea" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-215036043Z-456f621c49", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-215036043Z-456f621c49.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T21:50:36.043Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T21:48:25.307Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 43.15; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.72%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8989, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.21%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. 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Technicals are split between neutral and bearish with mixed momentum and moving average alignment, while derivatives positioning and macro/news feeds r..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "456f621c49cb31a986e1b102df30625b4b8f0e0119cba7b046fd3b22bf228a0a" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-215003982Z-61d1060d43", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-215003982Z-61d1060d43.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T21:50:03.982Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.1177, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.8136, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T21:48:24.408Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 48.74; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9097, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.97%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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The asset is trapped in a ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "3abec3a6338592b7dffcbcdc8de178206866f0f08ebe54d1aaf3eab7f2db6d99" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-181409005Z-7ae7834dc2", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-181409005Z-7ae7834dc2.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T18:14:09.005Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.1839, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 7.0819, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T18:11:59.341Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 44.93; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.81%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8974, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.24%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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While a ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "2425d41f929750918a1529323be581a54394e171e1eae76837ea414dfcbac01b" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-181303018Z-1d4696fa9e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-181303018Z-1d4696fa9e.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T18:13:03.018Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0236, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.5746, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T18:12:31.410Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 56.68; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.32%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9111, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.94%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Two technical indicators show a mild bullish bias, but market intelligence, sentiment, and news feeds remain neutral or unclear..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "1d4696fa9e530b3563e98095722a97a4ca8490fc7dab51402d2e533f7e507f6d" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-153852447Z-7daf0be982", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-153852447Z-7daf0be982.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T15:38:52.447Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T15:36:26.693Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 40.75; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.84%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8848, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.51%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent co..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0033%, open interest 4.3M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence threshold unmet (requires 3 aligned signals; currently 1 bearish, 1 bullish). Technicals are mixed with a 4h bearish agent hub verdict (MACD death cross, RSI 40.75) conflicting ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7daf0be98292fde2d6d89bf81399a0a72402cdb5cb582ae769e9e9687e7943c1" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-153814136Z-ccac1701f3", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-153814136Z-ccac1701f3.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T15:38:14.136Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.1059, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.1996, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T15:36:25.952Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 46.86; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.61%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8985, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.21%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Only one bullish technical signal is present, which fails to meet the three-signal con..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ccac1701f304d3e106de6e0494b9e042706e54d05dd3eb7c4d33488c9767427e" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-153735812Z-03f035689a", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-153735812Z-03f035689a.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T15:37:35.812Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0397, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.2116, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T15:36:58.981Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 52.47; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.32%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9121, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.92%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Price is range-bound around 62,922 with balanced derivatives, mixed moving averages, and no macro/news catalysts. The isolat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "03f035689a23a040f8b372e6918f89ee329978ae4ffb5efd9a819535a417dd74" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-112745729Z-936ce761e8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-112745729Z-936ce761e8.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T11:27:45.729Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T11:25:41.553Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 39.51; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.87%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.878, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.66%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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RSI is mid-range, MACD shows a death cross but lacks follow-through, ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "936ce761e8f4eddd393d8e1df1b4bed2b680c23c77d3eb32e5f8ff02a0a66cad" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-112716174Z-1e61d3ae86", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-112716174Z-1e61d3ae86.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T11:27:16.174Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.0019, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0019, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.8188, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T11:25:40.765Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 47.76; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.65%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8885, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.43%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0005%, open interest 531.39K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signal convergence requirement not met (1 bullish vs 3 required). 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Mixed technical..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "1e61d3ae866fe345d58383b9dd07521861bc18594a8a61288fc4ee684ce8b3b1" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-112645200Z-c8906ad3ec", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-112645200Z-c8906ad3ec.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T11:26:45.200Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0619, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0619, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.3772, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T11:26:13.801Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 50.49; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.32%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9066, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.04%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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SOL trades in a confirmed range-bound ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "0408956f058627179c23e36f94ab7af2100305d7481b1039c42641e0a0666304" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-080007850Z-7040c3f1bd", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-080007850Z-7040c3f1bd.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T08:00:07.850Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0146, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.6074, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T07:58:28.529Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 50.14; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.69%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8883, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.44%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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ETH remains range-bound with balanced derivatives positioning..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7040c3f1bdd9d93dc65a265ea7b034df04fa4c7e1585087d06577edf1eed3303" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-075934982Z-716c268b69", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-075934982Z-716c268b69.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T07:59:34.982Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0195, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.1785, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T07:59:01.292Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 52.84; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.36%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9066, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.04%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Derivati..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "716c268b693ea48d32d3d39cea79fcae106d0995cd4e4e724cfa3213ed0f4f73" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-041822588Z-ad5f6c0462", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-041822588Z-ad5f6c0462.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T04:18:22.588Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0.15, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1534, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 4.2482, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T04:15:58.407Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 36.73; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.79%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8808, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.60%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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The req..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ad5f6c0462dc42e2525b016dff4edbcbab05b907ad4dc2446b174c9008dccbad" }, { "cycleId": "20260709-041748440Z-4f09615627", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260709-041748440Z-4f09615627.json", "ts": "2026-07-09T04:17:48.440Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0858, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.6325, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-09T04:15:57.729Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 43.81; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.60%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8898, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.40%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Range-bound regime shows mixed technicals (neutral RSI, MACD cross vs negative momentum) and balanced derivatives po..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "91f39f2f619f622462ce10c0897cc8f506097cd6d5df260499aab9b47874a786" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-213432680Z-0f7eff69e4", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-213432680Z-0f7eff69e4.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T21:34:32.680Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0944, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0944, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.7471, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T21:32:50.350Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 44.52; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.30%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9069, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.03%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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While 24h momentum is slightly bearish, broader TA is neutral (RSI 44.52, MACD golden cross, mixed MAs) and derivatives positio..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "0f7eff69e49a0e7f1380ac69e4175403f029291ffb7505978e9e27cd565711c4" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-213401031Z-6fcb2461b6", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-213401031Z-6fcb2461b6.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T21:34:01.031Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2169, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.672, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T21:33:24.442Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 35.16; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.82%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8795, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.63%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Neutral derivatives positioning ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "6fcb2461b6ed5198e19cf80c08db5b7f76988dc207a1893870cf8d97f9fdeb2f" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-175525814Z-0a6522c566", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-175525814Z-0a6522c566.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T17:55:25.814Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0966, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.9359, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T17:53:04.997Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 45.41; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.74%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8781, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.66%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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ETH is range-bound with neutral RSI, mixed moving averages, and balanced derivatives positioning. Despite ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "0a6522c566b28fdc049f11f8dd41e8b03428cf93d83df3b46753c72964c1e9bc" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-175455903Z-595e8cf0f8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-175455903Z-595e8cf0f8.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T17:54:55.903Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0367, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.1402, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T17:53:04.419Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 45.02; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.36%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.18%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Technicals show mixed conditions (neutral RSI at 45, MACD golden cro..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "595e8cf0f894bcd2b72280ac5efb9d7b3a23da450ac75f9419ad57300edb8b3e" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-175420941Z-2a14b2db8b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-175420941Z-2a14b2db8b.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T17:54:20.941Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1831, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.3806, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T17:53:37.517Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 35.56; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.89%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8745, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.74%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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The convergence threshold requires 3 aligned sign..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "33da925c0f7f723d8e5dc84f9c3faaf5d3a630a97676f187ec20d9c34162ee0e" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-144427597Z-51fa56fd9d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-144427597Z-51fa56fd9d.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T14:44:27.597Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0468, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.3552, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T14:42:32.022Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 41.38; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.37%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8745, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.74%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Short-term momentum is negative but RSI (41.38) and MACD are neutral/bullish-crossing, price is trapped in a range, and derivatives po..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "51fa56fd9d91a954dd2e3fcb0a88228d772ac8ad0c37761829e1938859ba809b" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-144351901Z-b043a9dfe2", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-144351901Z-b043a9dfe2.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T14:43:51.901Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.2031, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 5.5046, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T14:43:05.069Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 32.15; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.92%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8634, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.98%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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The asset rema..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "78f954fced3ed2773858b7f62377f4206afcde49b3a121238f5f9e3f9e4c643d" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-064142569Z-74892bb26b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-064142569Z-74892bb26b.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T06:41:42.569Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0462, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.7422, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T06:40:05.322Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 46.66; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.71%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8615, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.02%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Only a single weak bearish momentum signal is present, failing the required three-signal convergenc..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "74892bb26bbfb1bce70526ad8d94c66d1d242a67c267e7bfe11a07847c06f64c" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-064108559Z-b3d3e2bcc2", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-064108559Z-b3d3e2bcc2.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T06:41:08.559Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.025, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.9006, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T06:40:38.239Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 46.53; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.32%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8757, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.71%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Technicals are conflicted with a neutral RSI of 40.25, mixed moving averages, and range-bound momentum. D..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d079825458e99422dd015f24e6dcd737ff691126c6819c21411b8051195bbc68" }, { "cycleId": "20260708-034947087Z-93d6c17c1c", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260708-034947087Z-93d6c17c1c.json", "ts": "2026-07-08T03:49:47.087Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-08T03:48:04.362Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 49.22; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.78%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8624, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.00%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Derivatives positioning is balanced and macro/news catalysts are ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "58aa0ca745bdb0269dc7f8494b18b1d3fdf8ac2b1b1d7718f224705a6982d3bc" }, { "cycleId": "20260707-214510693Z-55e919d95b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260707-214510693Z-55e919d95b.json", "ts": "2026-07-07T21:45:10.693Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-07T21:43:37.633Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 54.73; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.30%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.875, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.73%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Only two directional signa..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "55e919d95ba86f506305ab39c61135cd15adbf78489ce54bc635c74dd8382970" }, { "cycleId": "20260707-214442197Z-247b11487d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260707-214442197Z-247b11487d.json", "ts": "2026-07-07T21:44:42.197Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0594, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.4346, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-07T21:44:10.623Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 48.51; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.79%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8613, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.03%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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SOL is range-bound with neutral momentum, mixed technicals (RS..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "247b11487d247e88bbb18d9621c281e2b3e1c11484169a2670ef7db17f62e5c2" }, { "cycleId": "20260707-182453019Z-873db7f432", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260707-182453019Z-873db7f432.json", "ts": "2026-07-07T18:24:53.019Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-07T18:22:30.602Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 59.98; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.71%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8715, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.80%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0057%, open interest 4.12M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Signal convergence is absent with bullishCount and bearishCount both at 0. Price is range-bound and pressing against 82.38 resistance while sitting above the Bollinger upper band, but 24h m..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "873db7f43209ab01552244b317c24925b8489e8e2eaa41ebbb01fa387d41fb74" }, { "cycleId": "20260707-182421749Z-a79a7567fb", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260707-182421749Z-a79a7567fb.json", "ts": "2026-07-07T18:24:21.749Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-07T18:22:30.029Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 64.53; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.61%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.877, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.68%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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ETH is range-bound near 1804 with neutral momentum, balanced derivatives positioning, and conflicting t..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "a79a7567fb43395f2a2094b78a547e11f4f06f5b80e51cc377a4f28f206ac6fb" }, { "cycleId": "20260707-182343691Z-32a7c5d2c9", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260707-182343691Z-32a7c5d2c9.json", "ts": "2026-07-07T18:23:43.691Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-07T18:23:02.593Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 62.39; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.26%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8781, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.66%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Only one technical source indicates a bullish bias (Agent Hub MACD golden cross), while broader momentum is slightly negative, derivat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "3d087625c886a5039eeb0e05fa6fe05b0da6aa33932a8a50c8c69b1b0c3eae17" }, { "cycleId": "20260707-112216927Z-4db88a9dc1", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260707-112216927Z-4db88a9dc1.json", "ts": "2026-07-07T11:22:16.927Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0.1, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0351, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.9907, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-07T11:19:56.162Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 51.82; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.74%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.881, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.60%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Market is range-bound with balanced derivatives positioning, neutral funding, and conflicting technical reads. Despite an isolated str..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "8269ee394b604e4688e06463e53a34184ea38bf67b37483d24021f1cee0d9599" }, { "cycleId": "20260706-155741126Z-5ba57e3e9c", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260706-155741126Z-5ba57e3e9c.json", "ts": "2026-07-06T15:57:41.126Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-06T15:56:55.933Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 2, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 60.90; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.25%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8973, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.24%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 1 matched BTC: Bitcoin price falls up to 4% on Strategy BTC sale as trader sees Summer 2022 repeat | $60.4K Becomes 'most important area': Five..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0100%, open interest 33.98K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Bullish technical momentum clashes with risk-off macro context and institutional selling warnings. With only 1 bullish and 1 bearish signal, the required convergence threshold of 3 is unmet..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "5ba57e3e9cc0158d2a4ee57a9da5db81e7025186656f5c514826ef9651eb7689" }, { "cycleId": "20260706-121635303Z-171008c970", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260706-121635303Z-171008c970.json", "ts": "2026-07-06T12:16:35.303Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0715, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.8185, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-06T12:14:55.548Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 50.06; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.71%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9089, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.99%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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The single MACD golden..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "daab3c15c72ac00560e8d68396b869f8a48b8c2b1a93b42c4b4fd461a9944934" }, { "cycleId": "20260706-044417038Z-ec3593c6e6", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260706-044417038Z-ec3593c6e6.json", "ts": "2026-07-06T04:44:17.038Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1079, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1079, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.3174, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-06T04:42:58.111Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 63.69; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.03%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9414, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.28%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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However, qualitative and sentiment signals diverge: macro contex..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7ca3db4b2216c7555e80809a6d203cc02cdffbfca71b0e5ebcf0db21d1e4da07" }, { "cycleId": "20260705-141327906Z-53f2fd7614", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260705-141327906Z-53f2fd7614.json", "ts": "2026-07-05T14:13:27.906Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-05T14:11:38.348Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 58.15; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.74%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9075, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.02%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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The market is stuck in a range regime with balanced derivatives positioning and mixed sho..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "53f2fd7614266b99a97ed96b66b28bf9e7bbb25054d3681c533a4411747983c1" }, { "cycleId": "20260705-141252323Z-325d9987a3", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260705-141252323Z-325d9987a3.json", "ts": "2026-07-05T14:12:52.323Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1601, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1601, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.4515, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-05T14:11:37.637Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 64.54; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.45%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.919, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.77%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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BTC is trading in a defined range with balanced derivatives positioning, neutral funding, and unclear market i..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "afbef83d18c0e4f64d4cc69d31bff96b7ef49ca7a084be5e53d82d568b895dac" }, { "cycleId": "20260705-103019892Z-f938176652", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260705-103019892Z-f938176652.json", "ts": "2026-07-05T10:30:19.892Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2313, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2313, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.1071, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-05T10:29:32.068Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 2, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 62.59; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.51%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9137, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.88%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 6 matched ETH: Binance outflows triple to $1.2B as ETH withdrawals hit 3-year high | Vitalik Buterin shares top priorities for new 'Lean Ethere..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0067%, open interest 689.33K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical setup shows bullish momentum via MACD golden cross and uptrend regime, but macro risk-off context and balanced derivatives positioning prevent full signal alignment. Bullish signa..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "f938176652a18a831c16333bb2868488d020879df1b5dc80513bbb0a0c1cc10e" }, { "cycleId": "20260705-043451427Z-f26f20f4da", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260705-043451427Z-f26f20f4da.json", "ts": "2026-07-05T04:34:51.427Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-05T04:32:39.441Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 56.19; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.79%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9079, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.01%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Derivatives funding and open interest show balanced positioning, and the asset remains ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "f26f20f4da360e8d3f2b1f734b836083db6566edd982e030ce20ac7c5c23f39e" }, { "cycleId": "20260705-043409375Z-712bd73af1", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260705-043409375Z-712bd73af1.json", "ts": "2026-07-05T04:34:09.375Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.3723, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.3723, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.2707, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-05T04:32:38.645Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 66.51; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.50%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9085, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.00%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. 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Price is capped at immediate resistance n..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d276c38bdff0a2d4bba2043f4291d05c596126a40aafb328035aee1723eccdf7" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-211626192Z-254b60e227", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-211626192Z-254b60e227.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T21:16:26.192Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.313, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.7881, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T21:14:54.028Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 75.70; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.907, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.03%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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A confirmed uptrend regime, strong 24h/72h momentum, a MACD golden cross, and price action holding abo..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "254b60e2271d59018c75a6bb256d3f85164a6259924ab7a92df43b71fd9e0c82" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-211542727Z-8d70079b0e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-211542727Z-8d70079b0e.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T21:15:42.727Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.6, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.5989, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.5989, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.7383, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T21:14:56.043Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 71.30; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.08%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9422, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.26%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 2 matched BTC: Bollinger Bands creator eyes Bitcoin bear-market end, 'W'-shaped reversal | Tim Draper denies moving Bitcoin, reiterates $250,00..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0021%, open interest 34.89K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6, "reason": "Uptrend regime confirmed with positive 24h/72h momentum and a 4H MACD golden cross. Qualitative catalysts align technically: renewed ETF buying, corporate accumulation, and soft macro data ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "8d70079b0e16d3dd7f257de1207785f983db3d56dc900412c547fece0e44f9bb" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-173145218Z-0f1e954d4f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-173145218Z-0f1e954d4f.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T17:31:45.218Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2755, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2755, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.5328, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T17:29:46.307Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 66.49; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.86%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9059, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.05%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0020%, open interest 4.32M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Uptrend regime and trend-confirmed market intel are offset by neutral technicals, mixed moving averages, and balanced derivatives sentiment. The mandatory convergence threshold requires 3 a..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "0f1e954d4f90e42c6cebb4546068f43bc365cecd7bb3b79b4ddcbb6cf5a1a432" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-173110252Z-0350ace731", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-173110252Z-0350ace731.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T17:31:10.252Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.7, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.3186, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.2887, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T17:29:45.732Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 75.05; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.53%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9094, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.98%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0067%, open interest 689.1K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.7, "reason": "Convergent bullish signals confirm the ongoing uptrend: strong 24h/72h momentum, MACD golden cross, and price holding above rising moving averages. While RSI shows mild overbought condition..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "0350ace731e361fedca4b1f19055f7aa897c38e4f6da94a5037d41771a2f4c31" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-173022844Z-c46ad64321", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-173022844Z-c46ad64321.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T17:30:22.844Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.6361, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.7282, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T17:29:47.209Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 68.74; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.09%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.943, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.24%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 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RSI 63.90; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.93%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9055, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.06%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0057%, open interest 4.32M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Bullish signal count (2) remains below the required convergence threshold (3). While the broader regime is up and MACD shows a golden cross, 24h momentum is muted at 0.6% and derivatives se..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "53dc535c8f22d3ac8f185c50e83537ad13ab18045456330ae19366daf83db8c8" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-140249369Z-483611ff21", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-140249369Z-483611ff21.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T14:02:49.369Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.18, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.18, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.554, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T14:01:26.397Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 66.08; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.12%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9439, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.22%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Market is in a range with mixed technicals: RSI is neutral at 66.08, price trades above the upper Bollinger Band suggesting potential ex..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "483611ff2106c6c8a4a25c2f5a18e2888ee4a42d97a6b7da5457a7840e19cdd4" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-140211790Z-855d7193b8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-140211790Z-855d7193b8.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T14:02:11.790Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.1005, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.0863, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T14:01:29.273Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.725, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 73.43; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9152, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.85%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched ETH: Revolut to delist USDT in August, citing regulatory and risk concerns | Bitcoin, Ether extend relief rallies as extreme fear mee..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0014%, open interest 691.58K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.65, "reason": "Technical and qualitative signals converge bullish: the market is in a confirmed uptrend with aligned moving averages, a MACD golden cross, and strong 24h/72h momentum. Qualitative catalyst..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "855d7193b8f067e9e4858c394cc04fdeaa6f50c9d9040409a17dfdee8325b55c" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-102914425Z-7e34e2900c", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-102914425Z-7e34e2900c.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T10:29:14.425Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.3904, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.3904, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.0067, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T10:27:27.713Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 65.10; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.00%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8903, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.39%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0066%, open interest 4.23M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical analysis is neutral with mixed moving averages and RSI at 65.1, while derivatives sentiment and news feeds show balanced to absent catalysts. The broader regime indicates an uptre..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7e34e2900c0f3b6811aefe05672250570cfd862acfa8f0f54397d9733337b134" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-102842339Z-7ff4d22950", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-102842339Z-7ff4d22950.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T10:28:42.339Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2724, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2724, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.0094, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T10:27:26.179Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 65.42; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.18%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9391, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.33%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0030%, open interest 35.1K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence threshold unmet with only 1 bullish signal against the required 3. Technicals remain neutral with mixed MA trends and balanced derivatives positioning, providing insufficient ed..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7ff4d22950c50f574d5281b3b9773664c8079a3b653d72dc8e48e09c99a9f73b" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-102804620Z-0a58b0e025", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-102804620Z-0a58b0e025.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T10:28:04.620Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.4167, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.0573, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T10:27:28.837Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.725, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 72.49; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.55%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8729, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.77%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 5 matched ETH: Bitcoin, Ether extend relief rallies as extreme fear meets renewed ETF buying | Is Bitcoin heading for $65K? Sharplink buys $16M..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0084%, open interest 691.03K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.65, "reason": "ETH exhibits a confirmed uptrend backed by strong 72h momentum (+12.15%) and aligned bullish technicals (price above MA stack, MACD golden cross, short-squeeze dynamics). Positive news flow..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "0a58b0e025aba3c882a3a0c7f94b0db29aad6cad99ccd45bbaf0b94740649468" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-071922037Z-afead0ddc8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-071922037Z-afead0ddc8.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T07:19:22.037Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.85, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.4082, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.5978, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T07:17:17.653Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.725, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 68.71; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.03%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8447, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.39%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0035%, open interest 4.2M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.85, "reason": "Uptrend regime confirmed with 4 converging bullish signals. Price maintains positive momentum (9.21% over 72h) above all key moving averages, supported by a fresh MACD golden cross. Balance..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "afead0ddc85ea909526cd2c11ddbc004f41a71f3fc6ee2c4a13c30bc5ecd9a1d" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-071848502Z-6ead350edc", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-071848502Z-6ead350edc.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T07:18:48.502Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.8, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.5747, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.0225, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T07:17:16.853Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 71.57; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.63%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.869, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.86%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0048%, open interest 691.85K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8, "reason": "Bullish convergence threshold met (3/3). Strong momentum confirmed by 72h gain of 10.83% and a confirmed uptrend regime. A 4h MACD golden cross and price holding above the MA7/MA25 alignmen..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "6ead350edc3ac6d6af7333bb12da74745a14eb1b6f38ffa82359189e6453d48a" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-071808413Z-b310e943ef", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-071808413Z-b310e943ef.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T07:18:08.413Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2426, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2426, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.055, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T07:17:18.953Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 2, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 65.72; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.24%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9287, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.56%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 2 matched BTC: Bitcoin, Ether extend relief rallies as extreme fear meets renewed ETF buying | Bitcoin supply metric prints first 'buy' signal ..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0006%, open interest 35.1K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical momentum is positive but the overall TA verdict remains neutral with mixed MA alignment and balanced derivatives positioning. Macro context leans risk-off (DXY at 100.86, recent F..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "b310e943ef5c57b6976d5abfb6ca5815789a4e11a1b1b9489e383642bfe80af8" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-040634083Z-72b20b5151", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-040634083Z-72b20b5151.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T04:06:34.083Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.7, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.4421, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.3029, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T04:05:03.588Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.725, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 71.39; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 1.89%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8507, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.26%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Four independent bullish..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "72b20b5151f00406eac53ce3ed3ac8b8907fe607c9780d25b32b28fcbb37c562" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-040556280Z-57da1f3998", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-040556280Z-57da1f3998.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T04:05:56.280Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.4579, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.7178, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T04:05:02.867Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 71.46; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.59%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8674, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.89%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0052%, open interest 682.55K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.72, "reason": "Four convergent signals validate an active uptrend with strong 24h/72h momentum and a confirmed MACD golden cross. Price action remains aligned above key moving averages despite an overboug..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "57da1f3998dbe8e14c0f19abf90dc84e7e2c6edd176e2d086291002756f63c0d" }, { "cycleId": "20260704-040523836Z-42f61febbb", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260704-040523836Z-42f61febbb.json", "ts": "2026-07-04T04:05:23.836Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.851, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.7389, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-04T04:05:04.769Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 66.96; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.19%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9258, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.62%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 2 matched BTC: Bitcoin, Ether extend relief rallies as extreme fear meets renewed ETF buying | Bitcoin supply metric prints first 'buy' signal ..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0016%, open interest 34.99K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.72, "reason": "Technical and catalyst convergence favors longs: confirmed uptrend regime, 4H MACD golden cross, positive 24h/72h momentum, and fresh ETF inflows alongside a structural supply buy signal. P..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "42f61febbb9dc95a0b6c4d51d45384e8c341098e180c29867e4031c9de11e891" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-213644108Z-e172bf06b2", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-213644108Z-e172bf06b2.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T21:36:44.108Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.68, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.4454, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.9124, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T21:34:12.241Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.725, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 70.20; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.08%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8433, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.42%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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While RSI at 70.20 shows short-term o..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "e172bf06b2ce21cbc5b9f63ee2dc477216f302042e399bee70e5cca2c4e926da" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-213601654Z-9732fb5f06", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-213601654Z-9732fb5f06.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T21:36:01.654Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.4789, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.4789, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.2238, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T21:34:11.449Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 73.26; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.74%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8558, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.15%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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The 4h timeframe shows a MACD golden cross and RSI at 66.62, with price sustaining positive 24h/72h momentum above..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "e6990661943d9663b651dc3b08e807034daaba71c76234a4fdf8f9f3cb3235bf" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-175247428Z-bb9e82bbbf", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-175247428Z-bb9e82bbbf.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T17:52:47.428Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.76, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.2736, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.0335, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T17:51:09.322Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.725, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 68.84; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.07%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8375, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.54%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0040%, open interest 4.29M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.76, "reason": "Strong bullish convergence with 4 aligned signals: confirmed uptrend regime, +10.97% 72h momentum, 4h MA stack in bullish order, and a fresh MACD golden cross. Balanced derivatives funding ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "bb9e82bbbf0c826c81af1792a19d229a93454041b9c4b8299eee3a492d514c57" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-175215618Z-69f39cb37c", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-175215618Z-69f39cb37c.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T17:52:15.618Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2274, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2274, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.7459, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T17:51:07.517Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 64.09; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.32%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9059, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.05%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0057%, open interest 35.38K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Bullish technicals are present with a confirmed uptrend regime, RSI at 64, and a MACD golden cross, but the convergence threshold is unmet (2 of 3 required signals active). Derivatives posi..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "69f39cb37cd406ab9b006b4a6e639a66cad6a3a887c01a45827184d728c9b7f1" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-175148201Z-21b875837f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-175148201Z-21b875837f.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T17:51:48.201Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.1652, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.7446, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T17:51:10.589Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 70.37; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.71%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8578, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.10%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched ETH: Is Bitcoin heading for $65K? 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This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0028%, open interest 4.4M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Convergence requirement of 3 aligned signals is not met (bullish count is 2). Technical momentum is flat, derivatives positioning is balanced, and qualitative catalysts (news/macro) are abs..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c0ff964cfea834476ce09e9ab4843a31ebf9c154261b5421b1faef2734171ce5" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-143429318Z-4e4a5c4480", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-143429318Z-4e4a5c4480.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T14:34:29.318Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2345, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2345, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.2293, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T14:33:20.791Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 62.62; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.36%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9002, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.18%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. 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Momentum is modest, derivatives positioning is balanced, and moving averages remain mi..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "4e4a5c44800107a8527d5fc1f4b186f392327c8e4523b4ae95c06c46ed59ad78" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-143359409Z-55819fcd3f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-143359409Z-55819fcd3f.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T14:33:59.409Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.2071, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.2458, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T14:33:24.084Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 70.35; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.78%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8527, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.21%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched ETH: Is Bitcoin heading for $65K? Sharplink buys $16M ETH: Market Moves | Ripple co-founder backs venture launched by US senator's so..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0084%, open interest 727.82K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.65, "reason": "Uptrend confirmed by positive 24h/72h momentum, MACD golden cross, and regime alignment, reinforced by news of a short squeeze lifting prices and institutional accumulation. Overbought RSI ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "55819fcd3f99022bb9fab9e88cfaec664a43b59b5677a462aa6ae4832d7fb72b" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-110358248Z-ce124470d3", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-110358248Z-ce124470d3.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T11:03:58.248Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.47, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.47, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.8689, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T11:01:45.862Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 69.41; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.21%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8227, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.87%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0087%, open interest 4.5M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical structure is strongly bullish (MACD golden cross, price above MAs), but explicit convergence metrics fall short of the required 3 confirmed bullish signals (only 1 present). Deriv..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "ce124470d31809f7180c29f6522913a33e721e9c0fefc32462da3f195480069d" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-110317455Z-bcdf987c03", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-110317455Z-bcdf987c03.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T11:03:17.455Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2135, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2135, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.6204, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T11:01:44.564Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 62.48; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.39%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8888, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.43%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0100%, open interest 35.4K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Only two bullish signals are confirmed against a required convergence threshold of three. While the broader regime is an uptrend with a MACD golden cross, neutral short-term momentum, mixed..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bcdf987c030c9c2b83847974360fd06b29f5536725526096723a2fcc0bb5440b" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-110226763Z-2c261f26b8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-110226763Z-2c261f26b8.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T11:02:26.763Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.2867, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.9338, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T11:01:46.806Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 72.77; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.81%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8494, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.29%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched ETH: Is Bitcoin heading for $65K? 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News flow highlights a broader market short squeeze and a $16M institutional ETH accu..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "2c261f26b8198a25f742cb57f1752feb506ca39d452bc6362610f430db0d5954" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-074345537Z-5b576442be", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-074345537Z-5b576442be.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T07:43:45.537Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.27, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.5662, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T07:41:08.473Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 68.75; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.26%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8213, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.90%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0068%, open interest 4.58M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.75, "reason": "Bullish convergence threshold met with three aligned signals: sustained 24h/72h momentum, a confirmed uptrend regime, and a strong technical structure showing a MACD golden cross and price ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "5b576442be6b142b148ce822d3720bc1072343b4d3943c6426662a4bed027aad" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-074244735Z-f8e60859b8", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-074244735Z-f8e60859b8.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T07:42:44.735Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.7, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.252, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.6712, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T07:41:07.312Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 61.79; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.43%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8876, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.45%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Positive 24h/72h momentum and a confirmed trend structure align with a 4h MACD golden cross and price sus..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "f8e60859b86338ebea2c88267bc444fc6cf72822a08693752fee1c6660b25964" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-074207840Z-b2f22520a4", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-074207840Z-b2f22520a4.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T07:42:07.840Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.2592, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.2008, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T07:41:09.791Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 69.76; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.82%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8491, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.29%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 5 matched ETH: Is Bitcoin heading for $65K? 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Ne..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "b2f22520a4ff4fd5f493f89d50b4a14a778b9355eb5f70e069dcfe1163689143" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-041347406Z-d2cd74f85e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-041347406Z-d2cd74f85e.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T04:13:47.406Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.68, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.2448, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.0355, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T04:11:40.329Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 66.63; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.22%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8155, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.03%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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The bullish technical and regime signals meet the convergence..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "d2cd74f85ef6a056f04035d99c5b1eac6fad4042ea8b205370f8bc83fb94814a" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-041305285Z-99ede85d8a", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-041305285Z-99ede85d8a.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T04:13:05.285Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1205, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.037, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T04:11:38.902Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 59.00; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.40%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8848, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.51%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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The asset remains range-bound with balanced derivatives positioning and..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "99ede85d8a4f12cacb2abd88fbd1a2c9de15757564b6b785272b850a70ae741d" }, { "cycleId": "20260703-041226485Z-e84d781a06", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260703-041226485Z-e84d781a06.json", "ts": "2026-07-03T04:12:26.485Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.234, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.7, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-03T04:11:41.312Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 67.76; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.78%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8444, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.40%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 6 matched ETH: Is Bitcoin heading for $65K? 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Positive institutional catalysts and broader market strength align with a technical breakout above key moving av..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "e84d781a06d35dd79367541409c2c46df5f5eb0b492fd27bb3e9a0c6740e7c4b" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-213703172Z-cc7b791018", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-213703172Z-cc7b791018.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T21:37:03.172Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.78, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.2808, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.3352, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T21:35:04.188Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 68.08; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.39%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8162, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.01%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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SOLUSDT holds a confirmed uptrend with 3.82% 24h and 7.40% 72h momentum, a 4h MACD g..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "cc7b791018e44055f2bd8d0920af0fea0363dc25a690b2d1d8c05a1357ce080c" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-213615567Z-d61f2369e7", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-213615567Z-d61f2369e7.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T21:36:15.567Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0845, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.0853, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T21:35:02.144Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 60.54; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.54%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.886, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.49%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0069%, open interest 35.11K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical indicators show a mild bullish bias via MACD golden cross and positive short-term momentum, but the asset remains trapped in a range-bound regime with balanced derivatives positio..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "d61f2369e78ade7c01b9fe022f0fd6a3aefcb857c18a2e3bb28d3dfb92ded177" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-213551027Z-9cead07951", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-213551027Z-9cead07951.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T21:35:51.027Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.234, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.8665, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T21:35:05.291Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 67.36; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.91%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.847, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.34%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 5 matched ETH: The biggest blockchain upgrades still to come in 2026 | OFAC sanctions 134 ISIS-K crypto wallet addresses as Tether freezes fund..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0059%, open interest 706.54K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.65, "reason": "Technical and qualitative signals converge for a long position. ETH maintains an uptrend regime with strong 24h/72h momentum, a confirmed MACD golden cross, and price pushing above upper Bo..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "9cead079517ff23a2ef3a06251953f1498c986846b71189a37346c09a5e8c8a3" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-180548434Z-242cd2a651", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-180548434Z-242cd2a651.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T18:05:48.434Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.6, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.216, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.537, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.1406, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T18:03:31.731Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 67.19; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.01%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.847, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.34%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0055%, open interest 712.48K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6, "reason": "Bullish 24h/72h momentum (4.96%/4.46%) converges with a MACD golden cross and RSI at 67.19, satisfying the 3-signal convergence threshold. Price is pressing above local resistance (~1605-16..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "242cd2a6512f230abdb088ba1a74179d831c01d34d5013351fc380c9f67d751f" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-180507012Z-fada5ed5fb", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-180507012Z-fada5ed5fb.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T18:05:07.012Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0946, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.1448, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T18:03:30.959Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 62.07; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.61%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.887, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.47%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0020%, open interest 35.1K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Mixed technical signals within a range-bound regime prevent trade execution. Only one bullish momentum signal is present, offset by a 4h MACD death cross, neutral RSI, and balanced derivati..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "fada5ed5fb3e0b46c73ebcfde67c90630d01963693f3b2849ac4b23b9b672f92" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-180420413Z-34d31f6a92", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-180420413Z-34d31f6a92.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T18:04:20.413Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.27, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 4.6018, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T18:03:33.653Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 67.69; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8167, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.00%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 6 matched SOL: The biggest blockchain upgrades still to come in 2026 | Solana Foundation launches framework for protocol-level governance | US ..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0006%, open interest 4.8M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.75, "reason": "Technicals confirm a sustained uptrend backed by a MACD golden cross, bullish moving average alignment, and strong 24h/72h momentum. This technical strength converges with positive fundamen..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "34d31f6a928010979b2b333e8e8e78bce18bdfe452289ccdcda354eb844292d5" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-143316053Z-508d521e2f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-143316053Z-508d521e2f.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T14:33:16.053Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.27, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.8691, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T14:30:56.857Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 67.30; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.58%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8172, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.99%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conv..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for SOLUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0028%, open interest 4.85M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.75, "reason": "Bullish technical convergence meets the required threshold: positive short-to-medium term momentum, a confirmed MACD golden cross, and price trading above all key moving averages in an esta..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "508d521e2f86b4e704703c16540f3ac52417d1a456eab1d58c1bd96c4207509a" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-143230465Z-8547ea08c9", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-143230465Z-8547ea08c9.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T14:32:30.465Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1228, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.5021, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T14:30:55.466Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 62.09; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.63%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8865, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.48%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent convergence so..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0039%, open interest 35.45K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "BTCUSDT is range-bound near 61,700. While 24h/72h momentum is positive, core indicators conflict with a MACD death cross and neutral RSI (62.09). 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Fundamental c..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Avoid chasing a move after an extreme 24h impulse.", "failedChecks": [ "momentum_not_extreme" ] } }, "checksum": "cede82c190cc9a2be399a8d4bd7a42369477559136d1632d5bd097b2bddcd394" }, { "cycleId": "20260702-043444620Z-250dabc497", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260702-043444620Z-250dabc497.json", "ts": "2026-07-02T04:34:44.620Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1241, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.0327, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-02T04:32:39.559Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 58.19; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.84%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8684, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.87%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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SOL-specific catalysts including a $38M corporate treasury accumulation..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "9d99a168747d9fa6e9334fdbc85c2de742177a5f1a20a586f7aff1d30ce43ba6" }, { "cycleId": "20260701-215224677Z-c7107f4d24", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260701-215224677Z-c7107f4d24.json", "ts": "2026-07-01T21:52:24.677Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.2956, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.48, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-01T21:50:23.086Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 68.53; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.43%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8501, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.27%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Three convergence-aligned signals (candle momentum, trend confirmation, and MACD golden cross with a bullish MA sta..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "c7107f4d24ffe7dde327b7c66b99ac7a21efda3aeff7d0c61d8b12b63618e685" }, { "cycleId": "20260701-215144368Z-13b0ade083", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260701-215144368Z-13b0ade083.json", "ts": "2026-07-01T21:51:44.368Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0833, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.9946, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-01T21:50:21.465Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 58.46; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.49%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8935, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.32%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Price remains trapped in a range-bound regime with conflicting 4h technicals: short-term momentum shows mild upside, but ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "13b0ade08372361ede4140b5709c130e9219132a7b847336268d9c732ba5b0c0" }, { "cycleId": "20260701-215106564Z-d1ba458ab3", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260701-215106564Z-d1ba458ab3.json", "ts": "2026-07-01T21:51:06.564Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1419, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1419, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.3996, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-01T21:50:24.236Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 2, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 58.39; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.80%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8782, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.66%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 3 matched ETH: Bitcoin bounces off 21-month low, but leverage data signals caution: Was $57K the bottom? 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Price remains trapped in a range-bound regime with balanced funding/OI ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "5ae3be5dfa3c00cc8af92a626dbee5c0f75924d73caec4928692b70cee9b1496" }, { "cycleId": "20260701-151420674Z-402acba1f4", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260701-151420674Z-402acba1f4.json", "ts": "2026-07-01T15:14:20.674Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.234, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.5686, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-01T15:13:34.107Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 66.31; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.47%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8467, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.34%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 5 matched SOL: Circle CEO touts USDC's network advantage as OUSD emerges | Mysterious Solana project World unveiled as fully onchain prediction..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0003%, open interest 4.36M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.65, "reason": "Technical and qualitative signals converge bullish. Price maintains a confirmed uptrend with solid 24h/72h momentum, supported by a MACD golden cross and price trading above all key moving ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "402acba1f462e6181c6684993b2d3b55871d25add2daf53f4a7219f0d3b034fc" }, { "cycleId": "20260701-113548093Z-1ee9eb6e09", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260701-113548093Z-1ee9eb6e09.json", "ts": "2026-07-01T11:35:48.093Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0183, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.0596, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-07-01T11:33:29.746Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 45.51; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.77%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.866, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.92%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Positive corporat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "db322f27bb15d683a5482932c55064aad9f5aabb5518a07bcc950ae9f8b379cf" }, { "cycleId": "20260629-214759121Z-910405a27d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260629-214759121Z-910405a27d.json", "ts": "2026-06-29T21:47:59.121Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1085, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1085, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.9926, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-29T21:45:33.537Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 57.24; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.85%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8835, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.54%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bullish. 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Price is range-bound with balanced derivatives sentiment and mixed 4h struct..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "7ac59e8d9c4389ab110666e92d89f1ba1cb82bdb3478e1b2ad01ff99d7e3f3d3" }, { "cycleId": "20260629-214640850Z-3b54e4ac44", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260629-214640850Z-3b54e4ac44.json", "ts": "2026-06-29T21:46:40.850Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.55, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.198, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.5152, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 3.0445, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-29T21:45:35.224Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BULLISH; RSI 65.39; MACD golden_cross; MA trend bull; ATR 2.48%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8558, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.15%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 5 matched SOL: Prediction-market operational consolidation could spur M&A wave: Bernstein | Kalshi and Polymarket could become M&A targets as p..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0025%, open interest 4.32M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.55, "reason": "Technical setup shows a confirmed uptrend with strong momentum (+7.71% 24h), MACD golden cross, and price holding above all major moving averages. 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While internal technicals flag bearis..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "4c60bf4a9b99d2d9e4d0410b15ab0a3067e8c816594aa0e7698c332b09dd9946" }, { "cycleId": "20260628-213236590Z-fdfe195ca6", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260628-213236590Z-fdfe195ca6.json", "ts": "2026-06-28T21:32:36.590Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.0059, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.0059, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.9207, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-28T21:31:15.510Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 41.68; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.32%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9475, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.15%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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The m..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "fdfe195ca6e5b1ae7e01fe6d04405a176649b0897f00bc32b492fc2819fab129" }, { "cycleId": "20260628-213200302Z-e1b6083132", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260628-213200302Z-e1b6083132.json", "ts": "2026-06-28T21:32:00.302Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1856, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 2.667, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-28T21:31:17.744Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 2, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 50.23; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.27%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8935, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.32%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 5 matched SOL: SOL reclaims $72, but onchain data flags weakening momentum | SBI's $289 million Bitbank deal is symptomatic of Japan's crypto c..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0071%, open interest 4.41M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical signals show a MACD golden cross and an uptrend regime, but 24h momentum is negative, moving averages are mixed, and derivatives funding is neutral. 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Price trades below key moving averages with negative momentum and a confirmed MACD death cross on the 4h. 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The asset remains in a range-bound regime wit..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "16710aeb67b52eae9a9ca7fb2f876bca7984dd75a6b305241e1e25293b30311e" }, { "cycleId": "20260628-045559594Z-d077e95034", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260628-045559594Z-d077e95034.json", "ts": "2026-06-28T04:55:59.594Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-28T04:54:34.642Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 0, "standDown": 1, "watch": 5 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 44.07; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.43%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8986, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.21%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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The broader regime is bearish with a confirmed downtrend and a bearish technical verdict (MACD d..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bd227161c6ff08be0096a444465942c9b62183de0e280ac42693462764c43672" }, { "cycleId": "20260626-214344164Z-4917fd6b8f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260626-214344164Z-4917fd6b8f.json", "ts": "2026-06-26T21:43:44.164Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-26T21:42:21.962Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 41.75; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.93%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.773, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.95%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. 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Price is locked in a confirmed downtrend, trading below the MA7, MA25, and MA99 with a MACD death cross, negat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "c9a17c96c3736c201fe72a2f67632f78dcbdb2bd30e76b5cbd24eb33bfdc1156" }, { "cycleId": "20260626-044410084Z-c1400370d5", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260626-044410084Z-c1400370d5.json", "ts": "2026-06-26T04:44:10.084Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.3692, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.3301, "stopLossPct": 1.8, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-26T04:42:11.431Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 2, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 45.48; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.76%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6839, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 6.90%, regime volatile_chop" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime volatile_chop, market-intel risk_off, technical bearish. 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The volatile chop regime and risk-of..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "c1400370d540175d25a110da78f9017488490bf845ce660cec41bbf666a9bfd9" }, { "cycleId": "20260626-044337646Z-5ba94a1622", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260626-044337646Z-5ba94a1622.json", "ts": "2026-06-26T04:43:37.646Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1894, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1894, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.4794, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-26T04:42:10.031Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.725, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 37.07; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.85%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.7656, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 5.11%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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However, directional signal convergence fails to meet the required threshold of 3 (..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c94f7eb5dc78b6ee450c6354bf8c1e986d075a9b11d2dc040f0a34e2419a943d" }, { "cycleId": "20260625-215457277Z-ef9ff7c739", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260625-215457277Z-ef9ff7c739.json", "ts": "2026-06-25T21:54:57.277Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.8827, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.1405, "stopLossPct": 1.8, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-25T21:54:14.352Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 2, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 40.80; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.74%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.7061, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 6.41%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched SOL: a16z-backed crypto firm rebrands, shifts focus to solving AI’s global copyright headache | Crypto for Advisors: Bitcoin: plannin..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0001%, open interest 4.47M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.72, "reason": "Technical and macro signals strongly converge bearish. Price is trading below key moving averages (MA7: 67.57, MA25: 69.84) with a confirmed MACD death cross, negative 24h/72h momentum, and..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "ef9ff7c739d7372bdb67e422fb22c33af0e023d629aab594a3e848e3ad59d35c" }, { "cycleId": "20260625-182950912Z-65717ffd6e", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260625-182950912Z-65717ffd6e.json", "ts": "2026-06-25T18:29:50.912Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-25T18:27:48.080Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 33.09; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 2.48%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.7447, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 5.57%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. This is context only and does not count as an independent co..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0008%, open interest 712.73K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Technical indicators show bearish momentum, a MACD death cross, and price trading below key moving averages, but signal convergence is not met (1 bearish vs 3 required). Derivatives positio..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "65717ffd6e44763573bd583907b4e6463fe8921009b98bcc6ec5324b2968b4ca" }, { "cycleId": "20260625-182918308Z-bd554cef64", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260625-182918308Z-bd554cef64.json", "ts": "2026-06-25T18:29:18.308Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.2998, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 9.8689, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-25T18:27:47.096Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 32.87; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.89%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.7893, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.60%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. This is context only and does not count as an independent co..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for BTCUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0073%, open interest 34.41K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Bearish technical structure exists but lacks convergence with qualitative feeds. Derivatives positioning is balanced, and macro/news catalysts are unavailable. The convergence engine shows ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "bd554cef649079b9382ddb4c105c6d9d08168c415cd54f5335453879294900a5" }, { "cycleId": "20260625-182843464Z-39d15a6f4a", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260625-182843464Z-39d15a6f4a.json", "ts": "2026-06-25T18:28:43.464Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.62, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.9787, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.9787, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.1745, "stopLossPct": 1.8, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-25T18:27:49.960Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 2, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 37.58; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.84%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.7099, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 6.33%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched SOL: a16z-backed crypto firm rebrands, shifts focus to solving AI’s global copyright headache | Crypto for Advisors: Bitcoin: plannin..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0007%, open interest 4.43M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.62, "reason": "Bearish technical convergence aligns with a confirmed downtrend and risk-off macro environment. MACD displays a death cross, price trades below all key moving averages (MA7/25/99), and RSI ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "39d15a6f4abcde8a0827bf281fc5ec2f0893f619d604e2e1653ded696abb3555" }, { "cycleId": "20260625-152050808Z-93e164140c", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260625-152050808Z-93e164140c.json", "ts": "2026-06-25T15:20:50.808Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-25T15:18:39.311Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 31.50; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 2.55%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.7465, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 5.53%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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ETH trades below key moving averages with a MACD death cross, negative 24h/72h momentum, and a confirmed downtrend regime...." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "7d933d9c808b7c4e34f216d5be0fd05a460d0e4652e929b0c6bbb65e4c47f9d9" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-215033345Z-28f7fb462f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-215033345Z-28f7fb462f.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T21:50:33.345Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T21:48:38.092Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 39.20; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.47%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8175, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.98%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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With only 1 bearish and 1 bullish reading, mixed moving averages, and neutral derivatives positioning, there is insufficient alignment ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "28f7fb462f1114afc6180ace8403b0600c7023c85a78a56069d8d74b8d0d056c" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-215000432Z-19dc593c8b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-215000432Z-19dc593c8b.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T21:50:00.432Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T21:48:36.484Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 36.15; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.59%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8763, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.70%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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BTC remains in a range regime with neutral funding, balanced OI, and absent macro/news catalysts. Mixed t..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "19dc593c8b85735c95484b2d120c359ca70dbd67b8a350d9135cae6a75f34f32" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-214919050Z-f074e818ca", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-214919050Z-f074e818ca.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T21:49:19.050Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": -0.243, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 4.2855, "stopLossPct": 1.8, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T21:48:39.530Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 35.24; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 2.12%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8358, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.58%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 5 matched ETH: Ethereum’s much-hated staking 'tax' may already be obsolete | $170M Ether longs liquidated as crypto market tumbles: I..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0007%, open interest 743.27K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.75, "reason": "Technical and macro signals converge on the downside: ETH is in a confirmed downtrend with negative 24h/72h momentum, a MACD death cross, and price trading below all key moving averages. Th..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "f074e818ca3fb902179bfefb505f3019f2783fdf8f860a7fac93f64cf15acd2a" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-181446843Z-046557aab7", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-181446843Z-046557aab7.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T18:14:46.843Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T18:12:40.598Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 23.13; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 2.15%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.855, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.16%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Convergenc..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "046557aab75d12551b961d17a868ae4693a88a771311d285c9efac41af9f2042" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-181353089Z-fd43e81363", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-181353089Z-fd43e81363.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T18:13:53.089Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T18:12:40.016Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 22.54; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.59%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8937, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.32%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Neutral derivatives positioning and deeply oversold RSI (22.54) indicate hi..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "fd43e8136387af4c760f991aba7cd4ad2e4e18c03f7f64986fe1f412819d0059" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-181323428Z-c841f9de26", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-181323428Z-c841f9de26.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T18:13:23.428Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.55, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.1782, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 1.0972, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.1771, "stopLossPct": 1.8, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T18:12:42.084Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 26.49; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.52%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8467, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.35%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched SOL: Ethereum’s much-hated staking 'tax' may already be obsolete | Coinbase embeds Solana trading | Fixing crypto’s broken ..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0064%, open interest 4.66M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.55, "reason": "Technical and macro signals converge bearishly: confirmed downtrend with negative multi-day momentum, MACD death cross, and risk-off macro backdrop (DXY >101, VIX ~19.75). While RSI is over..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "c841f9de26ec27b9af20a47e4c4090650209b389b3296639dd404b06832a5985" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-151307342Z-173ecfaa63", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-151307342Z-173ecfaa63.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T15:13:07.342Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T15:10:50.443Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 36.58; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.09%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8838, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.53%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. 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While the broader regime is in a confirmed downtrend and MACD shows a ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "173ecfaa63fb9b691135c6a142b00cec635ae814d159c90fd15c1db1aa216ca3" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-151216657Z-2dc85d8c20", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-151216657Z-2dc85d8c20.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T15:12:16.657Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T15:10:48.586Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict STRONG BEARISH; RSI 28.11; MACD death_cross; MA trend bear; ATR 1.40%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9058, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.06%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Zero directiona..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "6760ff002bf99c1764aafe803ffb2af236b46f4974e1b52d184a7d29b5c41cb0" }, { "cycleId": "20260624-111929231Z-05166c7ab9", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260624-111929231Z-05166c7ab9.json", "ts": "2026-06-24T11:19:29.231Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0.15, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2704, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2704, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.5132, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-24T11:18:44.065Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 2, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 36.98; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.98%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8732, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.77%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched SOL: Ethereum’s much-hated staking 'tax' may already be obsolete | Coinbase embeds Solana trading | Fixing crypto’s broken ..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0012%, open interest 4.32M contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.15, "reason": "Bearish regime and risk-off macro backdrop align with technical weakness (MACD death cross, -6.41% 72h momentum), but signals fail to meet the required convergence threshold of 3. 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SOL remains range-bound with neutral funding rates, balanced open in..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "066a0153512a6b6c503eea0e48e6013e01886aaa5f846a70bb239b851aa0f380" }, { "cycleId": "20260623-113331656Z-f0f15f4f9b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260623-113331656Z-f0f15f4f9b.json", "ts": "2026-06-23T11:33:31.656Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1302, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.6531, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-23T11:32:09.173Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 34.41; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.73%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8726, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.78%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Price is consolidating within a defined ra..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "a593c644657e90e7c33e613aac344460877ed7b45a841ef734c564cf7dfda04e" }, { "cycleId": "20260623-043312250Z-91cbde050f", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260623-043312250Z-91cbde050f.json", "ts": "2026-06-23T04:33:12.250Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.0024, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0024, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.5137, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-23T04:32:05.198Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 48.38; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.39%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9019, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.14%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Only one bullish technical indicator is present while momentum, market intel, and derivatives sentiment are neutral or unclear. 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SOL-specific news highlights major public treasury ac..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "3b0090c3e1ec830b01b5242655fa142a030b08bde047c6c0f8d622339e4cde3a" }, { "cycleId": "20260621-143641240Z-e97481af13", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260621-143641240Z-e97481af13.json", "ts": "2026-06-21T14:36:41.240Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0847, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.719, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-21T14:34:48.034Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 48.38; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.34%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9309, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.51%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical bearish. 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Market is range-bound, derivatives sentiment is neutral, and there is no confirming news catalyst. Price lac..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "e97481af1356700fb13df127cffccf30abe2e751a65fb0b0efa23687d001b0fd" }, { "cycleId": "20260621-143613145Z-8ab81b25d6", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260621-143613145Z-8ab81b25d6.json", "ts": "2026-06-21T14:36:13.145Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.0837, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 3.0211, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-21T14:34:47.471Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 50.08; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.02%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9406, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.30%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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Despite a recognized downtrend regime and a MACD death cross, broader..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "05693c13ce06e33c726aa2f5654026af5319b41af6d26d04ce20c7144eb76b18" }, { "cycleId": "20260619-213837230Z-f97aff0944", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260619-213837230Z-f97aff0944.json", "ts": "2026-06-19T21:38:37.230Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-19T21:37:16.969Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 41.82; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.27%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8972, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.24%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical neutral. 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While the agent hub flags a bearish MACD death cross, momentum is neutral and the required 3-signal convergence i..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "f97aff0944e59d7de30be61e70b118cbdd3174feab19eafe5cba4a6fb44f8f27" }, { "cycleId": "20260619-213805934Z-5f1df13630", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260619-213805934Z-5f1df13630.json", "ts": "2026-06-19T21:38:05.934Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.6, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.5353, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.5353, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.9825, "stopLossPct": 1.8, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-19T21:37:20.210Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 44.40; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.70%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8606, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.04%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched ETH: Charles Schwab to enter prediction markets with S&P 500 wagers: WSJ | Ethereum faces core development funding crisis, former..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0036%, open interest 747.09K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6, "reason": "Technical and qualitative signals converge bearishly: 4H MACD shows a death cross, RSI sits at 44.4, and price struggles below the $1,700 level in a confirmed downtrend. Macro risk-off sent..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "5f1df13630ad858dd53221dc7875c5f82b9b0e7bf168c6971a5b8f7ea0f28aab" }, { "cycleId": "20260619-122052876Z-33788d8c71", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260619-122052876Z-33788d8c71.json", "ts": "2026-06-19T12:20:52.876Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2602, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 2.3816, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-19T12:18:58.978Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 38.15; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.09%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.803, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.30%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Neutral funding, balan..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "33788d8c7137afe7e4e90e1a16acfe1a492af22763379a552eb1eec39b317511" }, { "cycleId": "20260619-122024614Z-9e0781f4bf", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260619-122024614Z-9e0781f4bf.json", "ts": "2026-06-19T12:20:24.614Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.2062, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.2062, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.7152, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-19T12:18:58.272Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 39.78; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.74%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8374, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.55%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Deriva..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "9e0781f4bf10331081a9bc923c81c3a34f40256703c06fd70f4aeb8d722936a9" }, { "cycleId": "20260619-121948329Z-29d159587d", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260619-121948329Z-29d159587d.json", "ts": "2026-06-19T12:19:48.329Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.5602, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 1.1772, "stopLossPct": 1.8, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-19T12:19:00.322Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 35.11; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.28%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8762, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.70%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 2 matched BTC: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks: Is $60K BTC’s next stop? | Bitcoin to $145K by October? 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Post-FOMC risk-off environment a..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "29d159587d36a5bddbc881b149a0d6ea5c6a7954c0cbfacb82e1133ac5843a25" }, { "cycleId": "20260619-052956464Z-bafef10cf9", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260619-052956464Z-bafef10cf9.json", "ts": "2026-06-19T05:29:56.464Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": -0.08, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": -0.3178, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 8.4062, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "stop_band_crossed", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-19T05:27:57.095Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 2, "standDown": 1, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 39.23; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.29%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8006, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.35%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Moving averages are mixed and derivat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "11adb1219af4bc16ea0de72b5942bb86ab33a4cdaf104daf35e8ec0b3fc7d926" }, { "cycleId": "20260619-052834486Z-55034c0a54", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260619-052834486Z-55034c0a54.json", "ts": "2026-06-19T05:28:34.486Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.7358, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "short", "maxAdversePct": 0.9416, "stopLossPct": 1.8, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-19T05:27:57.865Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bearish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BEARISH; RSI 35.73; MACD death_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.40%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8748, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.73%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement; macro_indicators link: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 2 matched BTC: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks: Is $60K BTC’s next stop? | Bitcoin to $145K by October? Why this 'crazy accurate' ..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0017%, open interest 32.59K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "short", "confidence": 0.72, "reason": "Bearish technicals and macro conditions converge on a continuation play. Price has broken below key moving averages, MACD shows a death cross, and 24h/72h momentum remains negative. Post-FO..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "55034c0a5479ca13f8ff6db26773498332f15a4cf62dedcd15edc8910f7a86d4" }, { "cycleId": "20260618-222826939Z-ec3153bbac", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260618-222826939Z-ec3153bbac.json", "ts": "2026-06-18T22:28:26.939Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-18T22:26:37.768Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 42.57; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.30%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8024, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.31%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Macro headwinds from a recent hawkish FOMC ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "4007088562997b9915309a9b8586da333370afe9914a63553d590b7edba26d16" }, { "cycleId": "20260618-220154843Z-8a67e0923b", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260618-220154843Z-8a67e0923b.json", "ts": "2026-06-18T22:01:54.843Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-18T21:59:59.172Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict NEUTRAL; RSI 42.86; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 2.30%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8024, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 4.31%, regime downtrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime downtrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bearish. 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Negative 24h/72h momentum, a 4H MACD death cross, and a confirmed downtrend regime align with hawkish FOMC policy and a strong DXY (~100..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "8012b19ed96ea57640807a3a8b8de3fa5b6f3048831f1771a73ad1b5d1aee6f6" }, { "cycleId": "20260615-053236970Z-403a97c3af", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260615-053236970Z-403a97c3af.json", "ts": "2026-06-15T05:32:36.970Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.9976, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.006, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-15T05:30:14.094Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 69.11; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.78%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.856, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 3.14%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Neutral derivatives funding indicates ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "403a97c3af63ef56fc001089b317845a9bfc4f2199a4b0768b2191e82fe857de" }, { "cycleId": "20260615-053156035Z-6c1ebf9240", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260615-053156035Z-6c1ebf9240.json", "ts": "2026-06-15T05:31:56.035Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.72, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.4579, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.5044, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-15T05:30:13.449Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 64.52; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.34%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8961, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.27%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Negative 24h/72h momentum conflicts with a MACD golden cross. The asset is range-boun..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "9ffc8b81c442253a3b61bdf175fc88cff669fed789d21b371bb4e3d2b62d4228" }, { "cycleId": "20260614-175207591Z-8551f6b6bb", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260614-175207591Z-8551f6b6bb.json", "ts": "2026-06-14T17:52:07.591Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "STAND_DOWN", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "flat", "maxAdversePct": null, "stopLossPct": null, "exitReason": null, "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-14T17:51:29.506Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "STAND_DOWN", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 2, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 51.29; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.02%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9558, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 0.96%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 2…; macro_indicators link: https://www.federal..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched BTC: Bitcoin nears $65K as Trump says Hormuz will 'open to all' in Sunday Iran peace deal | Bitcoin surfs SpaceX IPO at $64K as trade..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0025%, open interest 32.3K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "NO_TRADE", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0, "reason": "Price remains trapped in a defined range with mixed technicals (neutral RSI, mixed MA trend) and balanced derivatives positioning. 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Price is trading ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "9ef36ddedceef23046dd0ee31a638ff4cbf16f3caf18af63fef2598d8de03747" }, { "cycleId": "20260614-051218618Z-142bc0b5d4", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260614-051218618Z-142bc0b5d4.json", "ts": "2026-06-14T05:12:18.618Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.6, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.5842, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.5842, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.2338, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-14T05:11:30.236Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 60.49; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.76%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8742, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.75%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 2…; macro_indicators link: https://www.federal..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched SOL: Blockworks acquires Messari in crypto data consolidation push | Ripple wants AI agents to pay in XRP and RLUSD. 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The 4h MACD shows a golden cross support..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "142bc0b5d475183c3680c4a61b27d6b4988eda793101a050b21428fef738571b" }, { "cycleId": "20260613-214249566Z-969534087a", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260613-214249566Z-969534087a.json", "ts": "2026-06-13T21:42:49.566Z", "symbol": "SOLUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.75, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 1.116, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0.0063, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-13T21:40:18.126Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 4, "standDown": 0, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 61.13; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.81%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.8827, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.56%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "risk_on", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime uptrend, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. 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Strong 72h momentum (8.99%) aligns with a 4h MACD golden cross and healthy RSI (61.13). Sligh..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "969534087af28022ca48dd48834b20a858128b1abc07639260acc16f87410551" }, { "cycleId": "20260613-214202494Z-592d48d322", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260613-214202494Z-592d48d322.json", "ts": "2026-06-13T21:42:02.494Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "APPROVE", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.65, "status": "APPROVED_TRADE", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": 0.4166, "counterfactualReturnPct": null, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": null, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-13T21:40:17.359Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 0, "watch": 3 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 54.13; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.41%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9013, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.15%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel trend_confirmed, technical bullish. This is context only and does not count as an independent conver..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "fallback-news-no-confirmation", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub news feed unavailable or empty for ETHUSDT; Catalyst treats this as no catalyst confirmation instead of inventing a headline." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding 0.0057%, open interest 762.51K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.65, "reason": "Technical signals converge with 3/3 bullish confirmations met. The 4h timeframe shows a MACD golden cross and price holding above the 1660 support cluster, while neutral RSI (54.13) leaves ..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "APPROVE", "approved": true, "reason": "All deterministic risk checks passed.", "failedChecks": [] } }, "checksum": "592d48d3228a2b699a5b24177e4ce76f32fdbb6a047baecc23876c82d6e0cae0" }, { "cycleId": "20260613-214122152Z-055b638177", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260613-214122152Z-055b638177.json", "ts": "2026-06-13T21:41:22.152Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "VETO", "action": "TRADE", "conviction": 0.45, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.3694, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.3694, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 0, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-13T21:40:19.394Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 6, "consensus": "TRADE_CANDIDATE", "voteCounts": { "trade": 3, "standDown": 1, "watch": 2 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 61.20; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.11%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "trend_confirmed", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.9266, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.60%, regime uptrend" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "agent-hub-macro", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "risk_off", "vote": "STAND_DOWN", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.6333, "reason": "Agent Hub macro context received: macro_indicators count: 3; macro_indicators title: Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 2…; macro_indicators link: https://www.federal..." }, { "id": "narrative-scout", "name": "Narrative Scout", "role": "Checks whether news confirms the setup", "source": "agent-hub-news", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "catalyst_watch", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub news returned 8 market headline(s); 4 matched BTC: Bitcoin surfs SpaceX IPO at $64K as trader warns key BTC price support may crumble | Bitcoin miner 'capitulation' comes as trade..." }, { "id": "positioning-scout", "name": "Positioning Scout", "role": "Reads funding and derivatives positioning", "source": "bitget-derivatives-market", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Funding -0.0074%, open interest 31.81K contracts; Bitget derivatives positioning is balanced" }, { "id": "qwen-strategist", "name": "Qwen Strategist", "role": "Synthesizes the thesis in plain language", "source": "bitget-qwen", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "TRADE", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 0.45, "reason": "Technical signals converge on a confirmed uptrend with positive short-term momentum and a MACD golden cross, meeting the system's required trade threshold. Conviction is capped at a moderat..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "VETO", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "055b63817716772a7a82d649e45339d9e7dbb4e75fafb45fec31475fdfb04b7b" }, { "cycleId": "20260613-175019618Z-cf8c903a77", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260613-175019618Z-cf8c903a77.json", "ts": "2026-06-13T17:50:19.618Z", "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1149, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1149, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.6516, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-13T17:48:08.989Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 53.32; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.50%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.8995, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 2.19%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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While the 4h MACD shows a golden cross, RSI is neutral, mo..." } ], "governor": { "name": "Risk Governor", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "approved": false, "reason": "Low conviction defaults to NO_TRADE.", "failedChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ] } }, "checksum": "cf8c903a7790169664c0042c7850f149c576e02de42c81d813367e24a5c138ff" }, { "cycleId": "20260613-174944917Z-7cd3046fda", "file": "receipts/cycles/20260613-174944917Z-7cd3046fda.json", "ts": "2026-06-13T17:49:44.917Z", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "decision": "STAND_DOWN", "action": "NO_TRADE", "conviction": 0, "status": "VETOED", "resolution": "RESOLVED", "resolvedReturnPct": null, "counterfactualReturnPct": 0.1357, "counterfactualRawReturnPct": 0.1357, "rawDirection": "long", "maxAdversePct": 1.3712, "stopLossPct": 2, "exitReason": "window_close", "failedRiskChecks": [ "conviction_floor" ], "council": { "version": "catalyst.agent-council.v1", "generatedAt": "2026-06-13T17:48:08.183Z", "requiredLiveMembers": 3, "liveMembers": 4, "consensus": "WATCH", "voteCounts": { "trade": 1, "standDown": 1, "watch": 4 }, "members": [ { "id": "chart-scout", "name": "Chart Scout", "role": "Reads Bitget candles and Agent Hub technicals", "source": "agent-hub-technical-analysis", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "bullish", "vote": "TRADE", "direction": "long", "confidence": 1, "reason": "Agent Hub technical-analysis verdict BULLISH; RSI 57.99; MACD golden_cross; MA trend mixed; ATR 1.19%" }, { "id": "flow-scout", "name": "Flow Scout", "role": "Checks market structure and volatility", "source": "bitget-market-candles", "sourceStatus": "live", "signal": "unclear", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.9254, "reason": "realized volatility proxy 1.63%, regime range" }, { "id": "macro-scout", "name": "Macro Scout", "role": "Looks for broad risk-on or risk-off context", "source": "fallback-bitget-market-regime", "sourceStatus": "fallback", "signal": "neutral", "vote": "WATCH", "direction": "flat", "confidence": 0.12, "reason": "Agent Hub macro feed unavailable; fallback uses Bitget market regime range, market-intel unclear, technical neutral. 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